Europe Economics Update The ECB is not done yet After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War re-escalation risk grows, Saudi GDP, Egypt inflation The recent tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran haven't derailed talks over ending the war. But the risk of a miscalculation is growing, which could trigger a return to the intense hostilities... 11th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Pace of tightening set to accelerate BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We... 10th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilising, albeit still depressed There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment... 9th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2026) South Africa’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% q/q in the first quarter but there were signs of weakness under the hood, which will make the Reserve Bank cautious about delivering... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2026) Chinese exports gained further momentum in May, led by soaring semiconductor shipments. Meanwhile, the pickup in import growth mostly reflects favourable base effects. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Growth risks outweighed by inflation and FX concerns The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today and maintained a “neutral” stance. But the very strong Q1 GDP data (released subsequently), along with rising inflation and continued worries about... 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs? We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q1 2026) The GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY25/26) show that India’s economy continued to grow at a very healthy clip, and more timely indicators point to resilience in the face of the energy shock. There is little... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan edges closer to policy normalisation BoJ Governor Ueda strongly hinted this week that a rate hike is imminent, with policymakers growing concerned about falling behind the inflation curve. With wage growth remaining historically strong... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA alert to inflation risks even as growth softens The Australian economy slowed noticeably in Q1. Although private demand appeared resilient, thanks largely to the data-centre construction boom, the weakness in household consumption remains a cause... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
