Europe Economics Weekly Suites of scenarios, models and European central banks The ECB's updated projections imply that at least one more interest rate hike will be necessary. But the absence of any clear guidance in yesterday's ECB press conference was arguably a dovish signal... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African inflation, Abiy’s next term Data due next week are likely to show a further rise in inflation in South Africa in May, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy again. But we think a hike in July will... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A cooling housing market but the RBA’s job isn’t done Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic, particularly about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to a three-year low and auction clearance rates continuing to weaken. Even... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2026) April’s 0.1% m/m contraction in real GDP showed the strong start to the year is now faltering. After growing by 0.6% q/q in Q1, we expect GDP to come to a standstill this quarter and next as the hit... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is not done yet After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War re-escalation risk grows, Saudi GDP, Egypt inflation The recent tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran haven't derailed talks over ending the war. But the risk of a miscalculation is growing, which could trigger a return to the intense hostilities... 11th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Pace of tightening set to accelerate BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We... 10th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilising, albeit still depressed There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment... 9th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2026) South Africa’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% q/q in the first quarter but there were signs of weakness under the hood, which will make the Reserve Bank cautious about delivering... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (May 2026) Chinese exports gained further momentum in May, led by soaring semiconductor shipments. Meanwhile, the pickup in import growth mostly reflects favourable base effects. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Growth risks outweighed by inflation and FX concerns The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today and maintained a “neutral” stance. But the very strong Q1 GDP data (released subsequently), along with rising inflation and continued worries about... 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs? We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
