Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Weak economy will force RBNZ's hand When it cut rates by 25bp this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a somewhat cautious approach to policy setting going forward. However, the recent flow of data suggest that New Zealand... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Despite the ongoing slump in consumer spending, we’re not convinced the RBA will cut rates as aggressively as markets are anticipating. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 25) If anything, the April activity data suggest that Japan’s economy is benefitting from trade tensions, which bodes well for our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) The latest data confirm that the world economy got off to a weak start this year. World trade has been one bright spot, as firms attempt to front-run tariffs. But business surveys have softened, and... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: At least one more ECB rate cut to come A 25bp interest rate cut next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.0%, looks very likely. But divisions are growing on the ECB about the impact of US trade policy on inflation and therefore the... 29th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Falling inflation gives RBI scope to keep cutting With headline inflation now at a multi-year low, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to cut the repo rate by another 25bps (to 5.75%) at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 6th June. In... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Tariffs start to drag on China’s growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth slowed in April. But, so far, US tariffs seem to have had a bigger impact on consumer sentiment than industrial activity, with rerouting and... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slowdown in Saudi’s non-oil sector only just starting The latest low-profile data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy has started to lose momentum. And with the shift to a more aggressive oil output policy causing oil prices to fall, further... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by Q1 2026 As was widely expected, the RBNZ cut its Official Cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, today. The revelation that the decision to cut was not a unanimous one has been interpreted as a hawkish signal by... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2025) The rebound in core durable goods orders in April wraps up a month of solid activity data, underscoring that tariffs have yet to inflict the severe damage on the economy some had feared. Nonetheless... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
