Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably has one cut left The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% was in line with expectations and the messaging in the press conference suggests that a pause at the next meeting in July is most likely. We... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi better placed to smooth non-oil slowdown The most frequent question we received from clients during recent meetings in the Gulf was whether lower oil prices would lead to a sharp slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector akin to that in 2014... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Ireland GDP (Q1 2025) We think that the huge upward revision to Ireland’s Q1 GDP data this morning, to show a rapid expansion that was in large part driven by tariff front-running, will lead to euro-zone growth being... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Steel tariff hike deals fresh blow to manufacturers Any short-term boost to domestic steel and aluminium production from higher tariffs is likely to be short-lived and offset by declining output in metal-using industries – making the tariff hike a drag... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft year ahead for Gulf non-oil sectors May’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf point to a softer Q2 for non-oil sectors and the backdrop of lower oil prices will likely result in less fiscal support and weaker confidence that add to the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2025) Although activity was off to a poor start in 2025, the persistent strength in unit labour cost growth will constrain the RBA’s ability to provide much policy support. 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war weighing on EM manufacturers’ sentiment The manufacturing PMIs remained subdued across EMs last month despite the US-China trade truce. That said, the timely hard activity data released so far has shown more resilience than the survey data. 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weak outlook for global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity has weakened so far in Q2. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain subdued in most countries apart from in the US, where tariffs already seem to... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2025) South Africa’s muted 0.1% q/q growth in the first quarter of the year on the back of a downwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 of last year suggests the recovery is losing momentum. That will only... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2025) The surprise decline in the ISM manufacturing index in May indicates that tariffs continue to weigh significantly on the sector. While the May data is less gloomy than initially appears, as a sharp... 2nd June 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity China is mounting a push for global technological leadership by deploying industrial policy on a huge scale. Judging by how competitive many Chinese firms now are at the cutting edge, the effort is... 2nd June 2025 · 25 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy struggling but exports holding up The impact of the trade war on Korean exporters has so far been limited. Although exports to the US fell in May, the decline was modest and offset by strong demand from other markets. However, other... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
