Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q2 2025) South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.8% q/q in the second quarter of the year, an acceleration on the muted 0.1% expansion in Q1, raising hopes that the recovery is back on track. We expect further... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial production rose in July and the outturn for June was revised up suggesting that the sector has been resilient to tariffs after all. But output was still weak by past standards. We... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin meets energy allies, Turkey’s court decision China and India both signalled this week that they are likely to continue buying Russian energy, but this won't save Russia from weak GDP growth over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the macro data out... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angolan oil, Ghana CPI & cedi, SA inflation target Angola's oil sector is continuing to struggle and, while investment announcements from multinationals this week should help eventually, a backdrop of lower oil prices and a fragile fiscal position... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone resilient to tariffs but growth still sluggish Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Halifax House Prices (Jul./Aug. 2025) The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent momentum early in Q3. The risk is talk of tax rises ahead of the... 5th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumer revival to temper RBA rate-cut outlook The Australian economy bounced back strongly last quarter, buoyed by a sharp rise in consumer spending. With households' real incomes growing strongly and housing wealth increasing in tandem, we... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Deliberately informative The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions”. We set ourselves a slightly... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug. 2025) The solid rise in the ISM services index in August matches the generally positive mood around the economy’s growth prospects in the third quarter. The tick down in the prices paid index is a relief... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
