Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2025) Although New Zealand’s recovery gained traction last quarter, there are signs that the upshift in momentum will prove short-lived. Accordingly, we still think there’s a strong case for the RBNZ to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy struggling at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that the weakness of South Africa’s economy in the first quarter of the year – in which GDP expanded by a measly 0.1% q/q – carried over into the start of Q2. Industry... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 25) While US-bound exports kept falling in May, Japan’s overall exports were little changed and we estimate that net exports will be only be a small drag on Q2 GDP growth 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2025) The modest decline in industrial production in May was driven by the volatile utilities sector; manufacturing and mining both increased, although admittedly only by a little. It is difficult to see a... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2025) The weakness in retail sales in May was mostly due to temporary drags from the end of tariff front-running and the unseasonably wet weather in the east of the country, so should reverse in June... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Denmark to pharmaceutical downturn? Denmark’s exceptional growth in recent years has been driven by one sector (pharmaceuticals) and one firm within that sector (Novo Nordisk). Its output has declined this year, raising questions about... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared... 17th June 2025 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (May 2025) The US-China trade truce was not enough to prevent a broader loss of economic momentum last month. With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal support waning and structural headwinds persisting, growth is... 16th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays defence The government’s new commitment to NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target will do little to help the economy this year, since the announced additional spending is focused in operations and... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2025) The stronger-than-expected June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index suggests that, despite ongoing policy uncertainty, consumers have become much less worried about both tariffs and... 13th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr. 2025) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in April as the temporary boost to exports from tariff front-running unwound. Prospects for a meaningful rebound over the coming months look slim, with new orders... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: End of tariff front-running to weigh on Q2 GDP Data published this week suggest that the boost to the euro-zone economy from exporters front-running US tariffs came to an end at the start of the second quarter. Next week, we expect central banks... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Q3 Outlook, inflation, defence spending Headline inflation in India has dropped to a more-than-six-year low and, while higher oil prices are an upside risk following Israel's air strikes on Iran, there are reasons to think inflation will... 13th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
