Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ tilt points to October rate hike While BoJ Governor Ueda acknowledged that Japan’s economy has so far shrugged off the impact of higher US tariffs, he warned that downside risks persist. Nonetheless, with the Governor admitting that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China’s iron ore extortion won’t succeed China’s strong reliance on Australian iron ore means that its recent ban of imports from one of Australia’s mining giants will at best result in minor concessions. The bigger picture though is that... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China’s catch-up is faltering A weak currency and sustained deflation mean that China’s economy is on course to shrink as a share of the global economy for a fourth consecutive year, when measured at market exchange rates. China... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (August 25) 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tougher times ahead for EM manufacturing The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in September was primarily driven by the jump in China. China (and India) aside, the EM PMIs generally remain weak and a combination of high US tariffs, tight... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply softer price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has remained relatively resilient in the wake of US tariffs and that the outlook has improved slightly. Meanwhile, goods price pressures have softened... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2025) The ISM manufacturing index has reversed the decline since April linked to the tariff disruptions, although it remains below the 50 mark and the accompanying comments from respondents suggest that... 1st October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Update Economy to be largely unaffected by shutdown Most government shutdowns have a negligible macroeconomic impact, often lasting just a day or two, and this one might be no different. Even if it drags on, the effects should remain modest, with... 1st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI opens door to further policy easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep the repo rate on hold at 5.50% today but has left the door open for a resumption in the easing cycle over the coming months. We still expect the repo rate... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (September) The September PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained weak and we continue to expect manufacturing activity in the region to struggle in the near term. With growth set to soften and inflation... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 25) The latest Tankan survey confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and supports our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle this month. 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
