Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar. 2025) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in March suggests the earlier boost from US tariff front-running is now reversing. A modest rise in new orders supports our view that the watered-down... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q1 2025) The Q1 GDP data released in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) today confirmed that growth slowed across the region ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. That said, Poland’s relatively strong... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q1 2025) Switzerland’s GDP growth shocked to the upside in the first quarter and grew by 0.7% q/q, shaking off concerns that trade uncertainty would weigh on the economy. This means the SNB is more likely to... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2025) The bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated as a lot of it was due to a leap in business investment that looks out of whack with the plunge in business confidence and some of it... 15th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what are the leading indicators saying? The latest survey data out of Mexico have been woeful and, while high-frequency hard data suggest that activity hasn’t fared as badly as might have been feared, the bigger picture is that the economy... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal election to lead to policy continuation Next week’s election in Portugal is likely to have little impact on the country’s economic prospects, not least because it looks like it will be a repeat of last year’s election results. Regardless of... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: A tariff detente won’t avert an export slowdown The US-China trade talks taking place in Geneva this weekend could pave the way for a partial rollback in tariffs. But they are still likely to remain much higher than at the start of the year. And a... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the UK-US deal a good omen for the EU? EU policymakers won’t have felt too excited about the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday. The deal is limited in scope, the details are yet to be finalised, and the EU might find it more challenging... 9th May 2025 · 7 mins read
