US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2025) The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index edged... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: One year on – Is the government boosting growth? The government has implemented some good policies in its first year, but it has undermined the resulting one-off boost to real GDP in the coming years with a few missteps. And the possible permanent... 3rd July 2025 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Jun. ’25) June’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a strong outturn for the Gulf’s non-oil sectors despite the coinciding escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. Tensions have since eased, but there may be a... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy still struggling, more easing likely The latest batch of monthly activity and inflation data for Korea support the case for further monetary policy easing by the central bank. We are expecting another 50bps of cuts before the end of the... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2025) With consumer spending remaining in the doldrums, there is a strong case for the RBA to cut rates faster and further than most are predicting. 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2025) The modest rebound in the ISM headline index to 49.0 in June, from 48.5, should temper concerns of a factory sector collapse driven by tariffs and lingering trade uncertainty. While the hit to... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued. With worries about growth having taken precedence over those about inflation, we think most central banks in the region will continue to... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q2 25) The Q2 Tankan survey showed that the economy is holding up well despite trade tensions, which supports our view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year. 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
