UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The big reduction in public borrowing and surge in retail sales in January support other evidence that the economy started the year looking a lot healthier. This will give the Chancellor something... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s AI summit meets the “AI scare trade” The optics of this week's AI Impact Summit in New Delhi were powerful, but the timing was awkward. India’s business consulting and software firms have been major casualties in the global equity sell... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Looser fiscal policy has yet to manifest itself The large supplementary budget passed in November provided no discernible boost to public spending last quarter, which supports our long-held view that the government only recorded a minuscule budget... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 26) With the composite PMI rising to a three-year high in February, the recent sluggishness in economic activity should be followed by a marked recovery in the first half of this year. 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Glittering TSX unlikely to boost consumption by much There does not appear to have been any meaningful wealth effects on consumption from the skyrocketing TSX, partly because households have faced offsetting falls in house prices. We expect the TSX to... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is the optimism around EMs warranted? Positivity surrounding emerging markets appears to be at its highest in many years. While some of this is justified, we think there is a wide variation in the outlook for both growth and financial... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2026) The housing market weakened sharply in January, with home sales and house prices both plunging. While the housing market has been struggling for some time, the record-breaking winter storm that hit... 18th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update About those Indonesian GDP figures… The acceleration in Indonesian GDP growth in Q4 is hard to square with some other activity data, which suggests that the economy softened at the end of last year. Given the government’s push to get... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Nov & Dec 2025) While housing starts ended the year strongly, and permit data suggest that January’s number should be even more positive, we continue to expect tightening financial conditions will pull starts back... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Despite a modest acceleration last quarter, aggregate Latin America growth was... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
