Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2025) The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggests that banks have become more cautious about lending to companies while consumers remain reluctant to spend. It also showed that the... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s PMIs from across the region showed that non-oil sectors across much of the Gulf lost momentum against the backdrop of low oil prices and heightened tensions in the region due to the protests... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA raises rates, leaves door ajar for further hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an unambiguously hawkish tone when it raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. Our base case is that the Bank will deliver only one more 25bp hike this year, but... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan 2026) The surge in the ISM Manufacturing Index in January suggests that after years of malaise, perhaps the manufacturing sector might be turning a corner. While the headline index is still at a level that... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s two-speed economy to soften in 2026 Saudi Arabia’s economy strengthened over the course of 2025 as the resumption of oil output hikes fuelled growth. But as that boost starts to fade and fiscal consolidation is ramped up against the... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe all came in below 50 which suggests that industrial sectors across the region started the year on the back foot. We think that demand conditions in... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (January) The January manufacturing PMI readings for Asian economies remain consistent with generally steady growth in manufacturing. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity data... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2026) The pickup in RatingDog services PMI for January only partially offsets the weakness in the official survey data. The big picture is still that the economy appears to have lost some momentum last... 2nd February 2026 (Updated 4th February 2026) · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan 26) China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant (albeit smaller) prop to the economy over... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Direction of next rate move depends on timeframe Heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook has the Bank leaving all options on the table. While we think the policy rate’s next move will be upwards and not come until 2027, any change before then... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique’s gas project, South Africa auto tariffs Mozambique announced that construction on its Cabo Delgado gas mega-project will restart, but the billions of dollars in revenue that it will bring are some years away, keeping crisis risks high in... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh faces an uphill battle at the Fed There was “broad support” among the FOMC to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75% at this week’s meeting. Non-voting participants, according to Chair Jerome Powell... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q4 2025 Provisional) The stronger-than-expected Mexican Q4 GDP figure, of 0.8% q/q, adds to reasons to think that Banxico will pause the easing cycle when it meets next week. But in spite of what looks like a relatively... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
