Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Israel-Iran fears, Red Sea investment, Saudi Q1 GDP Worries of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran and/or its proxies drove a jump in oil prices on Wednesday, but the fallout for the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies should be limited... 12th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2025) The fall in GDP in April supports our view that the strength of the economy in Q1 was a red herring and that GDP growth will be more subdued during the rest of the year. This won’t prompt the Bank of... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Foreign visitor slump could lend the Fed a hand A slump in the number of foreign visitors to the US could prove to be a helpful source of deflationary pressure this year, while having a limited impact on GDP growth. 9th June 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve... 9th June 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Tax cuts, trade and a truce The latest CBO projections suggest that tariff revenues will almost exactly offset the cost of the budget reconciliation over the next decade. Otherwise, although the recent talks between Presidents... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ends easing cycle with a bang The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
