Global Economics Focus Crowding out: Assessing the fiscal risks to growth Big budget deficits are fuelling fears about fiscal sustainability, but the potential negative effects on growth are receiving less attention. While Germany is embarking on a major fiscal expansion... 24th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (September 2025) The fall in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September contrasts with the big improvement in the Composite PMI and casts some doubt over hopes that the German economy might be finally... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch RBI will reignite the easing cycle The hit to GDP growth from punitive US tariffs, along with a benign inflation outlook, sets the stage for the RBI to resume its easing cycle at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 1st... 24th September 2025 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep. 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the downside risks around economic activity may be growing a bit and the upside risks to inflation may be fading, albeit only slowly. But with inflation likely to... 23rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy grew fairly slowly again in Q3 and that price pressures eased. 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Are Indian households becoming overleveraged? Rising household debt in India should not be a major concern for now given the backdrop of falling interest rates. But it is a risk that will require close monitoring once the easing cycle turns... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weak Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up a touch last month, but the economy is still growing at less than 3.5% y/y. The services sector has been outperforming in recent months thanks... 22nd September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC keeps options open, likely to cut again this year Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus: slower and smaller than most expect Recently released details about Germany’s fiscal plans suggest that it may take until the middle of next year to ramp up spending and that less of it will go on infrastructure than initially expected... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s revised fiscal rule, Czech rates, new forecasts Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov announced this week that the government will tighten its budget rule, setting the stage for what is likely to be broad fiscal tightening in the much... 19th September 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly MoF signals that fiscal policy will stay supportive The fiscal deficit across China’s two main budgets expanded almost 40% y/y over the past three months. This isn’t sustainable, and the pace of fiscal loosening will almost certainly slow over the... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) Today’s releases highlight the deteriorating nature of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. We think this will contribute to the Chancellor having to raise around... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
