US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2026) The slight rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in March masks the unease among firms evident in the breakdown, with new orders dropping back and supplier delivery times lengthening. The further rise... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How would fuel rationing affect Australia’s economy? Australia’s supply of petroleum products will dwindle over the coming weeks, which could prompt the government to impose fuel rationing. It seems likely that any restrictions will initially target... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 26) The Tankan survey showed that firms are shrugging off the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which should encourage the BoJ to hike rates at this month’s meeting. 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2026) The rise in GDP in January and projected gain in February leaves first-quarter growth roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimates. While this is still consistent with the Bank... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 26) China’s growth picked up at the start of the year, thanks to a boost from stronger fiscal spending and exports. This year’s Budget suggests that this fiscal support won't last. As a net energy... 31st March 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2025 Final) The confirmation that real GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q4 of last year is a reminder that the economic backdrop is much weaker now than the last time energy prices surged in 2022. 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2026) The decline in the RatingDog manufacturing PMI for March partially offsets the strength in the official survey data. But the big picture remains that, despite rising price pressures, the Iran War has... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Feb. 26), Tokyo CPI (Mar. 26) The February activity data show that Japan’s economy approached the Iran war with solid momentum and with inflation unlikely to surge, we expect any hit to activity from higher energy costs to be... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the Iran war undermine AI investment? The Iran war could take some of the momentum out of the AI investment boom but we doubt that it will fundamentally disrupt the overall build-out. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (March 2026) March’s EC survey suggests that the jump in energy prices has had a very limited impact on activity so far, while services firms’ selling price expectations are little changed. 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
