Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2024) The strong 1.7% q/q expansion in the Turkish economy in Q4 appears like a setback to the central bank’s efforts to bring down high inflation, but we don’t think this data is enough to throw the... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t drop its guard just yet At first glance, data released this week should give the RBA greater confidence that it has brought price pressures under control. Both headline and underlying inflation remained within the Bank's 2-3... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 25) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 25) The January activity data suggest that GDP will have fallen this quarter, but that would follow strong gains in previous quarters. With inflation set to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts, we... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale... 27th February 2025 · 26 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Moving from unanimity to dissent at the ECB The ECB looks very likely to reduce interest rates by 25bp next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but this will probably be the last “no-brainer” cut for some time. We expect the Bank to drop... 27th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jan. 2025) The increase in durable goods orders in January was due to the volatile transport component, while core orders were unchanged. Although underlying capital goods shipments fell, business investment... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional growth may hold up a little better than we had been expecting in Q1. That said, firms... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (February 2025) Surveys so far this year, including today’s EC survey for February, suggest the economy remains very weak while inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated. While the ESI did increase in... 27th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: next phase of stabilisation plan more difficult Argentina’s President Javier Milei has pledged to remove capital controls but we think that a major change in Argentina’s exchange rate setting before the mid-term elections in October is unlikely... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2025) India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2024) Nigeria recorded a further pick-up in GDP growth to 3.8% y/y in Q4 of last year and, with inflation and interest rates set to fall sharply, we expect the recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
