UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2025) The rise in the Caixin services PMI for May is reassuring and suggests that the US-China trade truce has boosted consumer and business sentiment. But it wasn’t enough to prevent the composite PMI from... 2nd June 2025 (Updated 5th June 2025) · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Evidence pointing to a weak Q2 UK GDP growth will almost certainly slow in Q2 after Q1’s bumper rise, irrespective of the outcome of the US tariff legal saga. Falls in business investment and exports will probably offset rises in... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: BoC to weigh up possibility of tariff reprieve The removal of the 25% fentanyl-related US tariffs would not transform the outlook for the Canadian economy, which would still suffer due to the impact of other tariffs and general uncertainty over... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Two years of Tinubu, SARB cut & inflation target Bola Tinubu marked his two year anniversary as Nigeria’s president this week by talking of new spending plans funded by foreign loans – which seems to be aimed in part at least at shoring up his... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 25) China’s economy slowed in April. And although US tariffs have had a bigger impact on consumer confidence than export growth, broader external headwinds will drive down export growth later this year... 30th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1 2025) Despite the upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth, the contraction in domestic demand means we are sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2025) The 1.4% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP was partly driven by a boom in the agricultural sector at the start of the year, which is likely to unwind. But it now looks like the economy is on course to... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q1 2025) GDP figures for Q1 2025 show that India’s economy grew at a robust pace at the start of the year and we think that growth may remain strong over the coming quarters as lower interest rates filter... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea goes to the polls with economy struggling Korea’s election takes place against a backdrop of an economy that may already be in recession, given the weakness of data published this week. We expect fiscal stimulus from the new president and a... 30th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s pessimism is facing reality check Firms’ output forecasts suggest that Japanese exporters are benefitting from US demand shifting away from China. And with inflation running miles ahead of the Bank of Japan’s overly pessimistic... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
