Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jun. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The US-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire has allayed fears of the conflict...

26th June 2025 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but...

26th June 2025 · 1 min read

Asia Economic Outlook

Asia Outlook: Tepid growth for many as tariff threat looms

We expect GDP growth across most of Asia to soften in 2025, with many countries likely to record below-consensus growth. The risk of escalating trade tensions remains a key concern, particularly for...

26th June 2025 · 28 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: Central banks to loosen further as recoveries falter

Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand isn’t likely to be sustained. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price...

26th June 2025 · 20 mins read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow

Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up...

25th June 2025 · 16 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and...

25th June 2025 · 0 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Can Europe afford NATO targets?

If it is implemented in full and funded through borrowing, the target for NATO members to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 could push debt burdens up by 10% of GDP or more over the next...

25th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Update

“One Canada” boost won’t come overnight

The One Canadian Economy Act (Bill C-5) is a positive step towards reducing dependency on the US in the long run. But it will do little to offset the blow to trade from tariffs given that even fast...

25th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

German budget: stimulus confirmed, deficit above 3%

Germany’s budget plans for 2025-29 confirm that the much anticipated big fiscal stimulus is coming and leave us comfortable with our view that GDP growth will pick up significantly from next year and...

25th June 2025 · 4 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: China’s industry takes a hit

Our China Activity Proxy suggests growth slowed further in May, with US tariffs weighing on industrial activity. While services growth did pick up, that seems to have been driven by a temporary boost...

24th June 2025 · 1 min read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

The latest data suggest that the boost to industry and trade from businesses front-running US tariffs is over. Manufacturing activity softened in April and May, and new orders have weakened. While...

24th June 2025 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Manufacturers struggling to escape tariffs despite USMCA

Data from the first two months of US tariffs being in effect suggest that both Canadian and Mexican manufacturers were struggling to make their exports USMCA-compliant, which poses a downward risk to...

24th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (June 2025)

The rise in the Ifo BCI in June suggests that activity in Germany has not yet been meaningfully hit by US tariffs. But output remains weak and we think a proper recovery will only materialise next...

24th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger

The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and...

23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf

The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is...

23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read