Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Additional savings could provide fuel for the rebound The 7.9% q/q recovery in consumption in Australia in Q3 still left it 6.8% below pre-virus levels. Even excluding Victoria, consumption only recovered to around 4.5% below pre-virus levels. And since... 22nd December 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget deficit may narrow faster than most anticipate The fact that the government revised up its estimate for the underlying cash balance in 2020/21 by more than 1% of GDP since the October Budget underlines that the economy is recovering much faster... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) The fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% in November leaves it on track to fall to 6% by the middle of next year and is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t expand quantitative easing any... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Aussie will appreciate further next year The Australian dollar has been one of best performing currencies over recent week. We think that it will continue to appreciate against the US dollar over the next couple of years, but that its rise... 14th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian banks unlikely to falter The capital ratios of Australian banks may decline a bit as loan deferrals come to an end and other policy support is withdrawn. But with capital ratios having almost doubled since the GFC and... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in October is likely to be overshadowed by an even larger increase in November as Victoria reopens. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Oct.) The trade balance widened in October but the widening was partly driven by price effects so we estimate that net exports made little contribution to GDP growth in Q4. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The rebound in Q3 GDP reversed around 40% of the decline during the first half of the year and we expect output to return to pre-virus levels by mid-2021. 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - QE may not be extended in April The RBA still sounded cautious when it left policy settings unchanged today. But if our more optimistic forecasts for GDP growth and inflation are realised, the Bank may not decide to expand QE in... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House prices are now rising in Australia and we reiterate our forecast that house prices will rise by 7% in 2021, though the risks look skewed to the upside. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing House prices in New Zealand are 20% higher than a year ago and look poised to surge in Australia. New Zealand’s central bank is already under pressure to respond to rapid house price inflation and we... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
