Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Sugar-high in consumption may not last Consumer spending is bouncing back more strongly than we had anticipated. However, that partly reflects pent-up demand and the strong support from government initiatives. Employment income has slumped... 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy bouncing back strongly Data released this week have shown the Australian economy is rebounding faster than we had expected. While labour market data for May showed a further decline in employment, a fall in the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (May) Employment fell further in May but with the economy opening up again it should start to rebound in June. As such, the unemployment rate probably won’t rise any further. 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia-China trade tensions unlikely to boil over The rising trade tensions between Australia and China in recent weeks are unlikely to meaningfully damage Australian exports. While China may introduce tariffs on Australian coal, it is unlikely to... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lifting lockdowns spurs confidence As the lockdown is lifted in Australia consumer and business sentiment is turning a corner. We expect consumer confidence and activity to continue picking up in line with easing restrictions... 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation set to fall sharply The sharp decline in activity in Australia is set to result in much weaker inflation before long. And even though output will recover rapidly over the coming months as virus restrictions are eased, we... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending The government has said it will delay the Budget Update until July so it can reassess the eligibility of the JobKeeper scheme. Reducing the payments for part-time workers could save the government... 5th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Homebuyer grants won’t prevent falling house prices The government today unveiled a grant for buyers of new homes. While grants for first-time home buyers boosted home sales during the global financial crisis, the new scheme won’t offset the impact of... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q1) GDP was falling before the bulk of the virus restrictions were in place and is set to fall more sharply in Q2 before picking up gradually in the second half of the year. 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to expand quantitative easing soon The RBA sounded cautiously optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still think that it will expand government bond purchases soon. 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How will policymakers rein in soaring public debt? Australia’s gross government debt/GDP ratio will hit the highest level since WWII by 2022/23. While the budget deficit will narrow again over the coming years as tax revenues rebound and stimulus... 1st June 2020 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (May) We think the small decline in house prices in May marks the start of a larger downturn. We expect house prices to fall by 5-10% in the coming months. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit to surge despite smaller JobKeeper bill The massive error in calculating the cost of the JobKeeper wage subsidy means the budget deficit will be smaller by nearly 2% of GDP in both the current and the coming financial year. It seems... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment was broadly flat in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure point to a sharp downturn in investment in the coming months. 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
