Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jan.) The small decline in the trade surplus in January masks larger weakness in both export and import values. And we think the coronavirus outbreak means that exports have further to fall in the coming... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q4) GDP growth remained subdued at the end of last year, and given the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak we expect the economy to deteriorate further in 2020. 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to cut rates to 0.25% in April With the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity set to intensify, we expect the RBA to follow up today’s 25bp rate cut with another 25bp cut in April. It looks increasingly likely that the... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus raises pressure on RBA to cut rates The slump in China’s PMIs in February and the continued spread of the coronavirus beyond China has raised the odds that the RBA will cut interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting. On balance though, we... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) The rally in house prices continued in February and all the leading indicators suggest that prices will keep rising at a rapid pace. However, affordability is deteriorating rapidly and we expect price... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surge in non-mining investment unlikely The capex survey for Q4 showed capital expenditure falling sharply at the end of last year. And while mining firms’ first estimate for capital spending in 2020/21 was very strong, non-mining firms are... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q4) We estimate that investment fell sharply, by 1.5% q/q in Q4. But firms’ expectations of a pick-up in nominal capital expenditure in the next financial year suggest the drag from private investment... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus on exports We estimate that the disruptions to China’s economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus will reduce Australia’s total exports by 3% this month. The drag from fewer Chinese students and tourists... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA can’t ignore weak labour market much longer The Reserve Bank of Australia remains worried that further loosening will provide additional fuel to soaring property prices and won’t cut interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday 3rd March. But with... 25th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q4) Wage growth remained subdued in the fourth quarter and we expect it to weaken further over the coming quarters. That should eventually convince the RBA to cut interest rates to 0.25%. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Consumption growth to remain muted this year Rising housing wealth may encourage households to spend a larger share of their incomes. But we expect income growth to weaken again as jobs growth slows and rising unemployment keeps a lid on wage... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA under less pressure to cut rates The RBA may yet cut rates to 0.25% in response to the drag on economic activity from the bushfires and the coronavirus. But with domestic demand rebounding as the housing slump has turned to boom, the... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
