Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - House prices should start to fall soon The ban on home auctions and open house viewings will probably result in lower home sales and there’s a growing risk that the government will ban the buying and selling of real estate altogether. Even... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may have to expand asset purchases further The RBA today announced a comprehensive set of measures to combat the disruptions to economic activity and financial markets caused by the coronavirus outbreak. If credit markets remain impaired for... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Feb.) Today’s data show that the coronavirus did not have a significant impact on the Australian domestic economy in February. Even so, we think the draconian restrictions put in place will result in... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in output to trigger large policy response The draconian coronavirus containment measures adopted by Australia’s government mean that we now expect GDP to fall by 2% this year. The Australian government is likely to respond with a larger... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus to lift corporate defaults Australian firms were in good shape on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, but the impending collapse in foreign tourism and weaker retail spending will lift loan write-offs in those sectors. The... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Recession in Australia is now very likely New comprehensive restrictions on travel mean that both Australia and New Zealand are headed for recession. We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to follow up today’s emergency 75bp rate cut with... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower oil prices are not great for Australians Lower oil prices and government transfer payments may boost household disposable incomes in the coming months. But we think the downturn in consumer confidence and the rising number of cases of the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian fiscal stimulus may avert a recession The large fiscal stimulus package unveiled today may be able to prevent a recession. But we still expect the RBA to cut rates to 0.25% and launch quantitative easing over the next few months. 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak In a moderate scenario where demand returns to pre-coronavirus levels by year-end, we estimate that the outbreak of the disease will knock off 1% from GDP growth this year. In a more severe scenario... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will the RBA launch a yield curve target? Most central banks that have introduced quantitative easing in recent years have done so by pledging to buy a certain amount of government bonds. Our base case is that the RBA will do the same when it... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales fell for the second consecutive month in January. And given that this happened before the coronavirus started to spread in Australia in earnest, the outlook for consumption remains weak. 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
