RBA Watch RBA to launch quantitative easing in earnest We suspect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd June. But with the Bank’s employment and price stability goals moving out of reach, we expect... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recovery will be gradual and bumpy Despite the slump in retail sales in April, consumption is unlikely to fall as much as we had anticipated across the current quarter. However, daily data suggest that the pace of recovery is very... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Investors won’t save the housing market Investors are not increasing their demand for housing and even if they did, owner-occupiers account for 70% of overall housing demand. The upshot is that investors won’t prevent house prices from... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Apr.) The small rise in the unemployment rate in April masks a sharp fall in employment and we still expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming months. 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q1) The stability in wage growth in Q1 tells us little about the impact of the virus outbreak on the labour market and a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters is likely. 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1) A large share of the surge in retail sales values in Q1 reflected soaring prices and sales volumes only rose modestly. With spending on many services plummeting, consumption probably fell in Q1. And... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Interest rates to remain close to 0% for years The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today left its interest rate targets unchanged but an easing of collateral requirements should provide some support to corporate bond markets. While the financial... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What does lower net migration mean for Australia? The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential GDP growth by as much as 1% for as long as it lasts. What’s more, it seems likely that net migration will be lower than before the virus... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q1) Inflation was accelerating ahead of the virus outbreak but the surge in spare capacity should push underlying inflation below 1% over the coming quarters. 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The continued easing in financial market tensions suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t announce any major new measures at its meeting on Tuesday, 5th May. And with unemployment set to... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
