Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Mar.) The coronavirus didn’t have a noticeable impact on the March labour market data but upcoming releases will show a sharp deterioration. The unemployment rate will probably be in double-digits before... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will Australia’s bank tighten lending standards? Australian banks have passed through the RBA’s recent cuts to some but not all of their lending rates and have tightened lending standards a bit. With banks now in better shape than during the global... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t announce additional measures at today’s meeting and given the easing in tensions on financial markets we think it won’t adjust policy settings over the... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Feb.) The small decline in the trade balance in February was the result of a sharp decline in exports being offset by a sharp decline in imports consistent with our view that domestic demand was set to... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian States taking different approaches A nationwide lockdown has not been declared in Australia as we had expected, largely because daily new cases have declined. However, a number of the biggest states have taken it upon them selves to... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.5% rise in retail sales in February precedes the significant spread of the virus in Australia and we think consumption will fall sharply the coming months. 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The recent easing in financial markets suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) won’t announce major decisions at the upcoming meeting on 7th April. Looking further ahead though, the Bank... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Coronavirus restrictions to weigh on growth New Zealand is now in a near-total lockdown for at least four weeks. And we wouldn’t be surprised if the lockdown lasted for two months. With no construction or non-food manufacturing taking place... 1st April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We think the continued rebound in house prices will come to an end before long as the virus outbreak reduces the volume of home sales and weighs on household incomes. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Complete lockdown could lower GDP by 30% in Q2 We estimate that a lockdown that would limit activity to “essential services” could knock off as much as 30-40% from Australia’s GDP for as long as it lasts. A lockdown is imminent and our best guess... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
