Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia The RBA has finally come around to our view that economic growth was weak at the end of 2019. But the Bank remains too optimistic on the outlook for 2020. We think the loss of tourism exports due to... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus counter-measures to cause GDP to fall The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the Australian economy will depend on how quickly the virus is brought under control. But given the disruption that has already happened to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to surge in January. But our sales to new listings ratio suggests that price growth may be approaching a peak. That’s consistent with our forecast for price growth to moderate... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q4) The pick-up in headline inflation in Q4 should be the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a February rate cut. Even so, weak economic activity should force the bank to cut rates again before long. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s wiggle room won’t last The improvement in the labour market in December alongside the surge in retail sales in November should be enough to keep the RBA on the sidelines in February. But we think weak economic activity will... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The fall in the unemployment rate to a nine-month low shows that monetary and fiscal stimulus is starting to work and reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mining’s dominance to end regardless of bushfires We doubt that the bushfire crisis will prompt a major shift in the Australian government’s attitude towards the mining industry. But the sector’s importance is set to decline either way as mining... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mortgage defaults may keep rising Banks’ housing lending standards remain tight. But this hasn’t prevented housing arrears from climbing to fresh highs as household balance sheets are stretched. And given that we expect the... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Nov.) The strongest rise in retail sales in two years could be a sign that tax refunds and interest rate cuts are finally boosting spending. But with consumer confidence falling to fresh lows, we doubt it... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
