Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Aug) The trade balance narrowed again in August and we think that trade was probably a drag on growth in the third quarter. 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Chinese demand for iron ore supporting recovery Australia has been one of the few beneficiaries of the strong rebound in China’s economy which has contributed to the recent strengthening of the Australian dollar. Admittedly, we expect the price of... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing downturn continued its run in Sydney and Melbourne in September, but prices rose again in the other six capital cities and we think nationwide prices will reach a trough by the end of this... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
RBA Watch Australia - RBA to cut rates and launch more QE The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more downbeat about the prospects for inflation and wage growth. While it could wait until November, we think it will announce further interest rate cuts and... 29th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from second virus waves The experience from second virus waves in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is that consumer spending falls even if governments don’t impose major restrictions. However, there are three key reasons why... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ setting the stage for negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continued to set the stage for negative rates today and we think the OCR will be cut into negative territory early next year. 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rise by 7% in 2021 The improvement in the labour market, lower borrowing costs and a turnaround in leading indicators all suggest that the housing downturn will soon come to an end. We now expect house prices across the... 22nd September 2020 · 16 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices may be overdone Strong demand from China will put a floor under corn and soybean consumption in 2020/21. But with record expected yields in the US, we expect corn and soybean prices to come off the boil. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market looking up The unemployment rate fell in Australia in August despite the lockdown in Victoria. The phasing out of JobKeeper is threatening some jobs, particularly those people in Victoria still not working their... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Aug.) August’s labour market data were much stronger than most had anticipated and we think that employment will continue to rise. 17th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from Australia’s average inflation targeting Inflation has been close to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target since its launch in the 1990s, but this has come at the expense of soaring house prices and household debt. Australia’s... 15th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Stealth QE doesn’t let RBA off the hook Proposals by the banking regulator and the RBA that banks will need to hold more government bonds could be interpreted as financial repression. However, the surge in the outstanding stock of... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity With a record plunge in output, Australia entered its first recession in 29 years last quarter. Huge public support payments resulted in an increase in both corporate profits and household income and... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales were 12% above pre-virus levels in July but the closure of non-essential shops in Victoria will weigh heavily on spending in August. That means that sales won’t rise all that much in Q3... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
