Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bushfires may reduce Q1 GDP by 0.1% The deadly bushfires that are ravaging Australia are first and foremost a human tragedy. But there are economic effects to consider, too. We suspect that the impact on consumption and working hours... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) With home sales climbing to a fresh high, our sales to listings ratio now suggests that house prices will soon be rising by around 10% per annum. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Diverging fortunes Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stabilisation but GDP growth is set to fall short of the RBA’s expectations. As such, we still expect the RBA to cut interest rates at the upcoming... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Nov.) The renewed drop in the unemployment rate in November reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates but we still expect the labour market to soften further. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government remains reluctant to loosen fiscal policy Australia’s government pledged to increase spending in today’s Budget update. And its pessimistic forecasts for nominal GDP growth suggest that tax revenue may continue to surprise on the upside... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy is not ‘back on track’ Australia’s economy may be past the worst but we still expect GDP growth to fall short of potential over the coming year. That means that unemployment will probably rise further, putting downward... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in retail sales in October suggests that consumption growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter. And while net exports should continue to support GDP growth, the weakness in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth fell short of expectations in the third quarter and we think it will remain much weaker than most anticipate. As such, we reiterate our view that the RBA will cut interest rates in February... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to ease policy further The RBA turned more optimistic when it kept rates unchanged today but we think that further stimulus will be required before long. We reiterate our long-held view that the Bank will cut rates to 0.25%... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough The Governor of the RBA in a speech this week confirmed that the floor for interest rates is 0.25%. While that announcement came as a surprise to some analysts, it was in line with our own thinking... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The renewed decline in machinery and equipment investment in the third quarter is consistent with the sharpest quarterly fall in private investment in three years. And we expect private investment to... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
