Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy may have kept growing in Q3 The modest fall in private investment and the continued surge in retail sales set a high bar for economic activity in Q3, when tough restrictions will have resulted in a slump in consumption and... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q2) Both machinery and equipment investment as well as construction investment fell less than we had anticipated in Q2 which suggests that the contraction in GDP wasn’t as deep as we thought. 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk to overall trade from China is limited China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine imports which could result in costly tariffs on Australian wine before long. But the bulk of Australia’s exports to China are LNG... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jul.) The pick-up in employment in July is likely to unwind in the coming months as the stricter lockdown in Victoria weighs on the labour market. 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How far will Australian house prices fall? We predicted four months ago that Australian house prices would fall by 5-10% from their peak. The short-lived nature of the recent downturn and the fact that affordability is looking increasingly... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to expand asset purchases in earnest The RBA turned more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy when it kept policy settings unchanged today and we think it will engage in additional asset purchases before long. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - State of disaster to slow recovery to a crawl The additional restrictions on activity imposed in Victoria this week to curb the renewed surge in virus cases will cause the recovery in output to slow markedly in Q3. 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The further decline in house prices in July is likely to persist in the coming months given the renewed lockdown and disruptions to activity in Melbourne. We ultimately expect house prices to fall by... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Plunge in inflation to eventually trigger more easing The renewed lockdown in Melbourne is set to undermine the recovery and will push inflation much further below the 2% target than the Reserve Bank of Australia is currently anticipating. We still think... 29th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q2) The deflation experienced in Q2 is not likely to be a lasting feature of the Australian economic landscape. But we think underlying inflation is likely to remain depressed for years to come. 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
