Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep.) While employment plunged yet again in September, hours worked started to rebound and the end of lockdowns will result in a rapid recovery in the labour market over coming months. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Structural slowdown in China a key threat to Australia Australia’s exports to China are even more vulnerable to a slowdown in the property sector than they were before the trade spat as iron ore has gained in importance. We think that China’s steel demand... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish stance set to be challenged While the RBNZ this week hiked interest rates by 25bp and signalled that more is to come, the RBA remained dovish. That makes sense in light of the continued weakness in underlying inflation and wage... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Sustained high inflation will prompt rate hikes in 2023 The RBA today stuck to its guns by predicting that rates won't rise until 2024, but our view that inflation will remain higher for longer means it will happen in early-2023 already. 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug. 2021) The record trade surplus in August came despite the plunge in iron ore prices in August. The upshot is that net trade should provide a boost to GDP growth in Q3 as domestic demand weakens. 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring food and energy prices to keep inflation high The spike in rural commodity prices should spill over into higher food inflation before long. And while the impact of higher energy commodity prices is less clear cut, we think electricity inflation... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) House prices have continued to surge despite the recent lockdowns. But we expect house price growth to slow next year as affordability constraints bite and macroprudential limits are imposed. 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch RBA set to hike in 2023 With the latest lockdowns set to end next month, we expect the RBA to taper its bond purchases in February. We still expect wage growth to accelerate more rapidly than the Bank anticipates and stick... 28th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA to impose lending restrictions by mid-2022 While house prices have surged, household debt remains contained and lending standards remain sound overall. However, housing credit growth is set to accelerate and there are already signs that some... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household debt will limit scope for rate hikes High and rising household debt in Australia and New Zealand will limit central banks’ scope to hike interest rates. The upshot is that we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by a modest 125bp in the... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year. 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) Employment plunged by 1.1% m/m in August, but we still think that the unemployment rate won’t surpass it pre-Delta level over the coming months even as the participation rate rebounds. 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- What to expect from a monetary policy review We doubt that any independent review of Australia’s monetary policy framework would result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house... 15th September 2021 · 4 mins read
