Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q3) The surge in quarterly inflation in Q3 only unwound some of the weakness in Q2 and we still expect underlying inflation to remain weak for years to come. 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates to 0.10% and launch QE The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates and launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. We suspect that aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will pave the... 28th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA QE to involve volume rather than yield target The minutes of the latest meeting all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting in November. While we previously argued that the RBA... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How much QE will the RBA deliver? The RBA’s assets will rise further over the coming months as banks draw down funding under the TFF. But so will the assets of other central banks. If the Bank wanted to catch up with the advanced... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More QE on the horizon RBA Governor Lowe announced this week that the Bank will keep rates on hold until actual inflation, rather than expected inflation, was sustainably in the 2-3% target band. And he also argued that the... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The drop in employment in September was largely due to weakness in Victoria. As restrictions ease there, we expect the unemployment rate to fall again in the coming months. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus now, monetary stimulus in November This week’s Australian Budget injected another huge dose of fiscal stimulus. Some of the measures may not be quite as effective as those in earlier rounds of stimulus but taken together Australia’s... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal policy set to remain loose We estimate that the income tax cuts and other stimulus measures unveiled in today’s Budget will provide fiscal support of around 2.5% of GDP in 2021/22. That won’t prevent a major tightening in... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bank to announce more easing in November The RBA kept policy settings unchanged today but signaled that more stimulus is forthcoming. We now expect the Bank to cut the cash rate target, the 3-year yield target and the interest rate on the... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Aug) The trade balance narrowed again in August and we think that trade was probably a drag on growth in the third quarter. 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Chinese demand for iron ore supporting recovery Australia has been one of the few beneficiaries of the strong rebound in China’s economy which has contributed to the recent strengthening of the Australian dollar. Admittedly, we expect the price of... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing downturn continued its run in Sydney and Melbourne in September, but prices rose again in the other six capital cities and we think nationwide prices will reach a trough by the end of this... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
RBA Watch Australia - RBA to cut rates and launch more QE The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more downbeat about the prospects for inflation and wage growth. While it could wait until November, we think it will announce further interest rate cuts and... 29th September 2020 · 7 mins read
