Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jun. 2021) Given that most of the rise in exports last quarter was driven by higher commodity prices, net exports probably provided another big drag on GDP growth in Q2. But we think that won’t last much longer. 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia- Retail Sales (Jun./Q2 2021) The decent rise in real retail sales last quarter is consistent with a further rise in consumption in Q2. But given the lockdowns in Q3, we expect consumption to decline before long. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA to hike rates in early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise by not delaying the tapering of its bond purchases. And by predicting that it will hit its full employment mandate and make further progress... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) House prices are continuing to surge and forward indicators suggest the upswing has a little further to run. Even so we think house price growth will slow in 2022. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant... 30th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to delay tapering to November We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to respond to the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney by delaying the tapering of its asset purchases from September to November. Even so, we still expect those... 28th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2021) Most of the surge in inflation in Q2 was driven by base effects that will unwind over the next couple of quarters, but we think that inflation will remain stronger than the RBA is anticipating. 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- How inflationary is the border closure? We believe that the slump in net migration is holding back supply more than demand. Unless the government allows net migration to overshoot its pre-virus level for a prolonged period once the border... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Vaccine rollout has yet to alter health situation With Sydney tightening its lockdown and the one in Victoria set to be extended, we now expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% q/q in Q3. The vaccine rollout isn’t advanced enough yet to ease the medical... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market continued to tighten in June and while the lockdown in New South Wales may result in some bumps over the next couple of months, we expect wage growth to accelerate soon. 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought... 12th July 2021 · 3 mins read
