Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Government yet to deliver pre-election spending boost The government unveiled only modest increases in spending in today’s fiscal update. And while the unemployment rate has now reached levels where the Treasurer has pledged to start repairing the public... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) The remarkable recovery in Australia’s labour market following the recent lockdowns suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will end its asset purchases altogether in February. 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Federal fiscal resilience masks state weakness Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will gloat when he unveils in the upcoming Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook that the federal deficit will be smaller in 2021/22 than expected despite the recent Delta... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia moving closer to digital Aussie dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian government are keen to explore the benefits of a retail central bank digital currency. But with pilot projects yet to start, we doubt that an eAud will... 9th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates by less than markets anticipate The RBA still sounded dovish when it kept policy unchanged policy. We think that rates will rise earlier than the Bank anticipates but later and by less than what the financial markets price in. 7th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Omicron could add to inflationary pressure If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021) While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns. 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year. 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3 2021) With private consumption now rebounding strongly as lockdowns have ended, output in states not affected by lockdowns continuing to rise, and capital spending resilient, we expect GDP to surpass its... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Market pricing on RBA still too optimistic The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying inflation should prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to taper its bond purchases in February and... 30th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter. 26th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21) Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters. 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Rate hikes will result in housing downturn High household debt will magnify the impact of interest rate hikes on the housing market and we now expect prices across the eight capital cities to fall by 5% from H2 2023. The upshot is that the RBA... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
