Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing House prices in New Zealand are 20% higher than a year ago and look poised to surge in Australia. New Zealand’s central bank is already under pressure to respond to rapid house price inflation and we... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Vaccine to reduce need for further monetary stimulus Australia and New Zealand will benefit less than other advanced economies from a vaccine due to their success in containing the virus. Even so, we’ve lifted our 2021 GDP growth forecasts a bit and no... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q3) We estimate that private investment fell by a modest 1.2% q/q in Q3, and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest we may be near the trough in investment. 26th November 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA probably won’t extend QE any further next year The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t make any policy changes at its meeting on 1st December. And with the labour market improving much faster than the Bank had anticipated and the prospect of a vaccine... 24th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to tighten, trade tensions to persist Some analysts have expressed optimism that the signing of the RCEP will help ease trade tensions between Australia and China, but we doubt the agreement will do much to calm the waters. Meanwhile, the... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The surge in employment in October largely preceded the relaxing of restrictions in Victoria so we expect that November data should show a further rise. 19th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q3) The weakness in wage growth in Q3 was partly driven by the delay to the minimum wage increase but we still think overall wage growth will remain soft in the years ahead. 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes brighten economic outlook A vaccine wouldn’t have a large impact on domestic demand in New Zealand as the virus has been almost eradicated, but it would allow Australia to reopen its services sector at a faster pace. However... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Consumption to drive above-consensus recovery While card transaction data have overstated the health of consumer spending in recent years, we suspect they didn’t do so recently. As such, we’re willing to take the jump in transaction amounts in Q3... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China threat to trade is growing Exports to China haven't fallen as much as those to other parts of the word despite mounting trade tensions. China has so far kept disruptions to trade to smaller export categories. But with reports... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The widening of the trade balance in September was not enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q3. 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The strong rebound in retail sales in Q3 was probably matched by a rebound in services consumption and has further to run as Victoria reopens. 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - QE will probably be extended beyond April The RBA didn’t disappoint when it cut interest rates and launched quantitative easing today. And even though it turned more optimistic about the economic outlook, we suspect it will expand its... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Australia’s housing downturn came to an end last month and we reiterate our forecast that house prices will rise by 7% in 2021, led by Sydney. 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation may not weaken all that much Underlying inflation bounced back more strongly last quarter than we had anticipated and with the economy now opening up again, we’ve revised up our near-term forecasts. However, the Reserve Bank of... 30th October 2020 · 8 mins read
