Japan Economics Focus Is the grass greener in Tokyo? We expect Tokyo’s economy to outperform the rest of Japan in coming years, largely because demographic prospects in the capital are brighter. One consequence is that house prices in Tokyo should... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories fell last week, but gasoline stocks rose, both partly reflecting increased refinery activity. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renminbi still likely to weaken further against the US dollar The appreciation of China’s currency against the US dollar this year, while small, has confounded market fears of a substantial devaluation . Nonetheless, even if the PBOC continues to target broad... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand on the up The demand for homes is on the rise. With mortgage affordability very favourable, jobs being created at a decent pace and banks loosening credit criteria, it is no surprise that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery set to fade February’s rise in euro-zone retail sales volumes caused the annual growth rate to pick back up to a healthy 2.4% and suggests that total consumer spending growth accelerated in the first quarter... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance? The rapid improvement in Brazil’s trade balance is due mainly to a collapse in imports caused by the extreme weakness of domestic demand. But there are also signs that a weaker real is starting to... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Feb.) Buying of gold by central banks slowed in February but this appears to be largely due to seasonal factors. The case for gold as a strategic reserve asset remains intact and we expect purchases, mainly... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite the strong start to the year, policymakers indicated recently... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation outlook appears benign After a seasonal spike in February, CPI inflation is likely to have to have fallen slightly last month. That said, inflation is likely to remain higher in the coming quarters than during most of the... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economy weathering Brexit uncertainty reasonably well We have already written about how Brexit uncertainty is affecting financial markets, with the pound in particular coming under pressure. But it is harder to find concrete evidence that the looming EU... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will commercial banks now pass on policy rate cuts? Having now cut its repo rate by 150bp since January 2015, the RBI yesterday re-emphasised the need for commercial banks to boost lending by passing on rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
