Global Economics Update IMF still behind the curve Despite being revised down yet again, we think the IMF’s latest projections for global growth are still too high. This is partly because the IMF appears to be constrained by the official, government... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s consumer prices release showed the economy’s movement away from deflation resumed after stalling in February. 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy feeling the strains of austerity Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the start of this year as the impact of fiscal austerity weighed heavily on the non-oil sector. Meanwhile, today’s decision by... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away? Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The drop in Indian consumer price inflation in March is likely to fuel talk of more interest rate cuts, but we think that the scope for further loosening still looks very limited. 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this a temporary setback for the dollar? Three key developments explain the US dollar’s slide against other major currencies since its peak on 20 th January – higher commodity prices, increased appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The tin rally is all about supply The price of tin has rallied by more than other metals prices since mid-January. We think this reflects the tight supply picture and low stocks. However, with growth in demand likely to remain subdued... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) March’s BRC sales figures showed surprisingly weak retail sales growth. While we don’t think this points to a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, it does support the view that this year may not be... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack QQE continues to face strong headwinds Three years after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, the Bank of Japan’s efforts to stoke price pressures are failing. Business confidence has fallen to a three-year low while the... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery to weather referendum uncertainty well Although the EU referendum is less than three months away, its impact on the economy has so far been relatively modest. And if the UK votes to stay, activity could subsequently rebound. Admittedly... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update PMs lose momentum but technical outlook remains positive Expectations that the Fed will hike rates sooner rather than later, coupled with the uncertainty still surrounding China’s economy (although both sentiment and the hard data have improved lately)... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
