Japan Economics Weekly Will inflation ever reach 2%? If the government presses ahead with the sales tax hike next year, the chances of hitting 2% inflation on a sustainable basis anytime soon are very slim. Even if the tax hike is postponed, our best... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export downturn set to drag on The export downturn that began over a year ago is showing little sign of coming to an end. A big part of the reason for the current weakness has been the slump in commodity prices. Even if commodity... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q1 GDP, March Activity & Credit While GDP growth edged down in Q1, there are at least signs in the more recent data that momentum was improving going into this quarter. With monetary and fiscal conditions still being loosened and... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand? Since the sharp declines in inflation expectations were the main reason why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% in March, future moves in inflation expectations will have a big... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Deal or no deal in Doha? We think that the risk of the oil market being disappointed by any deal to freeze production in Doha on Sunday is high, given that oil prices have rallied by over 10% in the last week alone. Any deal... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM markets benefit from resurgent commodity prices The further recovery in commodity prices over the past month has given financial markets in the emerging world another leg up. We doubt that commodity prices will rise much further, but with clearer... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Policymakers running out of ammunition The euro-zone’s gradual recovery appears to be slowing as we had warned as boosts from the euro’s depreciation and falling oil prices fade. However, the ECB has hinted at limits to its future policy... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage applications are understating housing demand Mortgage applications for home purchase are barely half their pre-crisis levels. But a steady rise in the share of applications that are approved means active housing demand from mortgage-dependent... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in March consumer prices, which was below the consensus estimate of a 0.2% m/m gain, was principally because of a 1.1% m/m drop back in clothing prices. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Record take-up points to logistics rental growth across Germany In 2015, German logistics take-up hit a new record. Although the Kiel Institute’s logistics sentiment indicator fell to its lowest level in three years in Q1, consumer goods companies and delivery... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will negative interest rates lead to higher savings? We are not convinced that negative policy rates will prompt households to save more, in aggregate, even though some may step up their savings for retirement. There are many other drivers of savings... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives warnings about EU referendum The MPC’s unanimous decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at 0.5% today was unsurprising given recent signs of a slowdown in economic activity and heightened uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.) South Africa’s PGM production fell sharply in February for the second consecutive month, suggesting that mining firms are finally cutting output in response to lower prices. Looking ahead, wages are... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Mar) As financial market volatility subsided, commercial property investment activity picked up in March. The latest data point tentatively to improving liquidity, but not to any rise in risk aversion. In... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining figures suggest weak Q1 GDP growth Today’s mining figures are a sobering reminder of the weakness of one of South Africa’s key industries. Our GDP tracker suggests that growth remained positive, albeit very weak, in Q1. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
