Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Mexican industrial production growth in February, to 2.6% y/y from 0.8% y/y in January, was encouraging, but it is too early to suggest that the sector has turned a... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: rapid credit growth starting to ring alarm bells Qatar has been one of the best performing economies in the MENA region over the past decade and one of the key drivers of this has been the rapid growth of bank lending. However, we are concerned that... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies The early results of Peru’s presidential election suggest that the race will go to a run-off on 5th June. But given that both leading candidates are likely to continue with the current government’s... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal The resignation of Ukraine’s prime minister on Sunday, coming alongside waning support for the government, will reignite concerns over the future of the country’s frozen IMF programme. While for now... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Mar.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show a further tightening of the market in March, despite a larger-than-expected rise in production. 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 9.0% y/y in March, but we think the inflation figures are yet to fully capture the impact of the devaluation of the pound in the same month. Indeed, we expect... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Feb.) The decline in Turkey’s current account deficit in February was due almost entirely to lower oil prices, which reduced the energy import bill. We think the deficit is unlikely to improve from here on... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Inflation remained elevated by recent standards last month. But this is arguably welcome given previous concerns over deflation risks. It also shouldn't prevent further monetary easing given that... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) The surge in iron and steel orders which pushed up machinery orders in January reversed in February but orders remain consistent with a renewed rise in business investment last quarter. 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting Commodity prices had a mixed week, despite support from further softness in the US dollar. In particular, key industrial metals dropped back, consistent with our view that the earlier surge was... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices surge ahead of Doha meeting Commodity prices had a mixed week, despite support from further softness in the US dollar. In particular, key industrial metals dropped back, consistent with our view that the earlier surge was... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where do the risks lie? Financial markets across Emerging Asia have rebounded in recent months as investors have become more confident over the short-term economic outlook for the region. However, as we make clear in our... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Potential growth still held back by productivity slump If sustained (admittedly a big if), the recent surge in labour force growth would mean that the US economy’s potential growth rate is arguably higher than most economists currently believe... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
