Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s surprisingly small fall in German industrial production offers hope of a pick-up in GDP growth in the first quarter. But it is too early to conclude that the euro-zone’s main growth engine... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Tigers in trouble, but better prospects elsewhere The region’s original tiger economies, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea, are likely to struggle over the next couple of years against a backdrop of cooling credit growth, bursting property... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will shopping vouchers boost consumption? The proposed distribution of shopping vouchers to households would only boost spending temporarily. In order to lower precautionary savings and provide a longer-lasting impetus to private consumption... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for household spending? Consumption growth has slowed in every major advanced economy over the past six months or so, but prospects for the rest of the year are mixed. Spending should pick up again in the US, where the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growing imbalances cast cloud over recovery While the latest National Accounts showed that the pace of the economic recovery was stronger in Q4 than previously estimated, it highlighted that the economy’s imbalances remain large and have grown... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much longer will yen strength weigh on the Nikkei? April may prove to be a crunch month for our view that renewed currency weakness will allow Japanese equities to outperform again. If the yen fails to drop back in response to further monetary easing... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high of $47.1bn in February, from $45.9bn, means that net exports will be a drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we now think was around 1.5%... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election unlikely to mark shift in economic policy The run-up to Peru’s presidential election on Sunday 10th April has been overshadowed by concerns about the neutrality of the country’s electoral authorities. But, whatever the eventual outcome, the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Jan.) US imports of silver fell in January suggesting that industrial demand was yet to recover. However, more timely data show that low prices have continued to stimulate investor demand for coins... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals price rally may prove unsustainable, for now The prices of most industrial metals rose strongly for much of March, but eased back towards the end of the month and in early April. Indeed, a weaker US dollar (on lower market expectations for US... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices saw another strong increase in February according to CoreLogic. And with demand set to rise further, but inventory still very constrained, further gains this year can be expected. 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Italy’s recovery continue? After years of recession, the Italian economy returned to growth last year and further policy support could see the recovery pick up slightly in 2016. But there has been little improvement in the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are yield falls about to go into reverse in Oslo offices? Early indications from Q1 2016 suggest that office yields in Oslo are coming under upwards pressure. Although consistent with the weakening rental market, this is contrary to our current forecasts... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) The latest fiscal data for central governments show that Greece made a notably strong start to 2016 while the performance over the periphery as a whole was mixed . Meanwhile, the first releases of... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
