Global Markets Update A simple economist’s view of the euro and the yen The recent weakness of the US dollar against the euro and especially the yen has already led many to tear up their currency forecasts for the year. However, expectations for US monetary policy still... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Temporary boost to demand shows signs of waning Buyers seeking to transact ahead of April’s stamp duty deadline appear to have lifted housing market activity. And there are signs of a modest reaction from prices too. But from April onwards, those... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in March, to 9.4% y/y from 10.4% y/y in February, could prompt COPOM to take a less hawkish stance. But with inflation still likely to remain well above target... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying are the falls in the activity surveys? Last week’s Markit/CIPS surveys pointed to a slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter, a picture supported by other activity surveys. But while the economy seems to be going through a slightly... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gasoline consumption to continue growing strongly Fuel consumption by US motorists is set to grow strongly again this year, despite a shaky start, as robust employment growth encourages more people to drive and demand for less fuel-efficient trucks... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears ECB officials appear to be trying to strike a balance between holding the door open to further policy action and yet stressing the limitations of monetary policy in order to pressure governments into... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold’s rally far from over Despite last week’s fall in the wake of strong US economic data out, we think that gold’s rally this year is far from being over. In particular, we expect building inflationary pressures in the US to... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the panic, what next for EMs? The sense of crisis that had been building in emerging markets has started to ease over the past month or so. So what next? In this Update we identify three risks – China, commodities and the threat... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague high streets offer decent value despite historically low yields Positive consumer sector fundamentals reinforce our belief that prime retail rental values in Prague will rise by 3.7% p.a. in 2016-18. Low alternative asset yields and positive fundamentals mean that... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.) February’s trade and industrial production figures add to the evidence that the economy has made an uninspiring start to the year and suggest that growth remains heavily unbalanced. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) The sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish industrial production in February provides some evidence that local firms are benefiting from a weaker lira. Elsewhere, the decline in Hungary’s inflation... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing The government has tried to talk down the yen down over last week as the currency has climbed to fresh highs against the dollar. While we still consider intervention in the currency markets unlikely... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) The rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey last month is far less positive than it looks. Allowing for seasonal variations, “current conditions” were the weakest since 2014’s sales tax hike. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in consumer confidence in March may prove short-lived as stock markets sold off again at the start of April. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar crucial when domestic demand is slowing The Reserve Bank of Australia should be applauded for resuming its attempts to talk down the dollar as the evolution of the currency will have a crucial influence on the outlook for both economic... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Feb.) The current account surplus rebounded in February, but we expect the energy import bill to rise which should result in a narrower surplus in coming months. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
