Commodities Update Agriculturals benefit from a weak dollar, but will it last? It has been a good month for agriculturals, with the S&P GSCI agriculture index rising by a little under 4% since the start of March. This reverses the downward trend in January and February... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack PGMs outperform on improved China prospects Over the past month, the performances of precious metals have diverged. After a strong start to March, the prices of gold and silver fell back as expectations for further monetary tightening in the US... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data point to strong consumer spending growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. And the downward revision to March’s Composite PMI added to signs that... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Mar.) A rebound in the Markit/CIPS services survey in March suggests that the sector’s recovery is getting back on track, following a poor February. However, the survey is still consistent with a slowdown... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job Uncertainty regarding who will take over at the helm of the Turkish central bank when the current governor’s term expires this month has raised concerns that a government loyalist could be put in... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) The sharp fall in March’s ‘whole economy’ PMI for Egypt is the first sign that the recent devaluation of the pound will, in the near-term, weigh on the economy. Meanwhile, we suspect that the modest... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI cuts repo rate but loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its repo rate by 25bp to 6.50% today but, given the difficulties it faces in meeting its inflation targets for March 2017 and 2018, we think that rates will now... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar We were right to suggest that, while leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia would use the policy statement to try to talk the dollar down. Whether or not this will... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Zuma saga is far from over Today’s vote to impeach President Jacob Zuma will almost certainly fail. But efforts to oust the president will continue, potentially distracting political attention from South Africa’s dire economic... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will the Philippines continue to grow strongly after Aquino? Much is at stake as the Philippines prepares to go to the polls on 9th May. The current president, Benigno Aquino, who is forbidden from standing again, deserves much of the credit for turning the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) The unexpected widening in the international trade deficit in February and revisions to past data suggest that GDP growth may have slowed sharply in the first quarter. This makes it more important for... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) While wage growth rebounded in February, the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely result in smaller base pay hikes than last year. The upshot is that the outlook for labour income remains... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: 2017 budget cuts to keep fiscal deficit in check The Mexican government announced over the weekend preliminary plans to make additional cuts to government spending next year. This will keep the budget deficit in check against a backdrop of much... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) Data released today confirmed that Saudi GDP growth held steady at 3.6% y/y in the final quarter of last year but we think the economy will slow sharply this year and even further in 2017. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout The public spat between Greece and the IMF underlines the fragility of the country’s latest bailout deal and demonstrates that its long-term future inside the currency union is still far from assured... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
