US Economics Weekly What is behind the slowdown in consumption growth? The revelation last week that spending in January was much weaker than initially thought, coupled with the modest increase in February, means that real consumption growth probably slowed to around 2.0... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change Comments today by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in an interview with Bloomberg confirm our view that Saudi policymakers are comfortable with a period of low oil prices. What’s... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Our key calls for this year Despite the recent resurgence in economic growth, we still expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again, albeit not until much later this year. While widening interest rate differentials... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4) The release of Russian Q4 GDP data today provides further evidence that the worst of the recession is now behind us. And monthly activity data suggest that the slump in activity continued to ease in... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in February suggests that the economy was on course to contract in Q1 even before the more recent escalation in the country’s political crisis. The... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China data finally starting to turn? The jump in China’s two manufacturing PMIs in March suggest that policy stimulus is starting to work, although these reports alone only validate the earlier rally in industrial commodity prices rather... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities spring into life Commodity prices had another strong month in March, supported by some weakness in the US dollar and the ongoing improvement in investor sentiment towards riskier assets. Tentative signs of a pick-up... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 215,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in March highlights once again that, even though GDP growth has been underwhelming over the past six months, the labour market remains unusually strong. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing We have argued for some time that the consumer recovery, which was the main driver of growth in 2015, would slow this year. Last week brought further evidence that this process is underway. Declining... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What can LME stocks tell us about the aluminium market? In this Metals & Mining Watch , we peer into the murky world of aluminium stocks on the LME. We ask whether LME stocks data are, and can expected to be, reliable indicators of the economic drivers... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) Another dismal UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the sector is still struggling to put its troubles last year behind it. But the manufacturing sector’s prospects should begin to look... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unexpected improvement in South Africa’s PMI is very welcome news for the struggling economy. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator with a mixed record of predicting real... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined last month in most of Emerging Europe, but overall they continue to paint a picture of a Russian economy that is still struggling and of outperformance in Central Europe... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural factors holding back wage growth Low inflation and the continued expansion in part-time employment are one reason why wage growth is not picking up. However, there are also some structural factors at play. Japan’s lifetime employment... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs picked up across the board last month but, while the worst appears to be over for the region’s manufacturing sectors, conditions remain weak. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
