Europe Economics Update Cypriot success story comes with caveats Cyprus’ exit from its bailout and budding economic recovery are good news. But major challenges lie ahead in addressing non-performing loans and generating growth outside the financial services sector... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand finally rebounds The South African rand appreciated sharply this month, solidifying the gains it has made since the turn of the year. Other African financial markets also preformed relatively well. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s household borrowing figures will have done nothing to ease concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. But we do not yet consider the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The Quarterly National Accounts showed the recovery regained a little pace at the end of 2015 but this partly contributed to growing imbalances in the economy. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped in February. This is further evidence suggesting that the surge in activity ahead of the introduction of a stamp duty surcharge on additional homes has... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to the property sector rose in February. Despite the sharp increase in net loans to standing investments, riskier development lending fell once more. That, together with the fact that... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will the reform of the EU sugar regime affect world prices? The European Union (EU) sugar regime governs the production, sale and trade in sugar within the region. In 2017, the regime will be liberalised: production quotas will be abolished and guaranteed... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the participation rate continue to rebound? The recent surge in labour force participation has been concentrated among low-skilled workers, which may be artificially depressing average hourly earnings. But with this trend unlikely to last and... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen offices set for solid, but unspectacular, rental growth We expect Denmark’s economic recovery to strengthen further, with employment growth in particular solidifying. This will drive a further pick-up in demand for offices and, although much of the new... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) Consumer confidence held steady in March at a level a little below last year’s average. But with confidence still high by past standards, a sharp slowdown in household spending growth is not likely to... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The whopping 5.7% y/y rise in Turkish GDP in Q4 was flattered by working day effects, but even taking this into account the economy remained extremely robust. The strong growth figures coming... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections take centre stage The raft of upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound in margin lending boosts equities Stock markets in China rose in March, helped in part by a pick-up in margin lending. Meanwhile, there are signs that speculative downward pressures on the renminbi have eased. Market interest rates... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories hit a new record for the seventh consecutive time last week, despite a surge in inputs to refineries, a further drop in US oil production and lower imports. On the other hand... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
