Energy Update What are the chances of a deal in Doha to freeze oil output? Comments from a leading Saudi Arabian official on Friday have led markets to reassess the prospect of a deal being done in Doha later this month to freeze OPEC and Russian oil production. In our view... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will high valuations snuff out the rally in EM equities? The strong performance of emerging market (EM) equities in recent months has left their valuations high according to some measures, such as the price/12month forward earnings ratio. But we do not... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.) Today’s commercial construction PMI data are consistent with our view that all-property rental growth is likely to slow during the remainder of 2016. However, itgives no indication that a rental... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment suggests that the labour market remains in reasonable health, but it is still too weak to generate any real inflationary pressure. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in March, to a seven-month low of 7.5% y/y, was driven by a drop in food inflation, and masked the fact that core inflation remains extremely strong. Even so... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India's manufacturing PMI rose in March but, taking Q1 as a whole, the sector's performance remained lacklustre. Over the longer term, local manufacturers continue to face significant structural... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.) Although February’s building approvals data were broadly in line with expectations, retail sales were much weaker than expected and suggest that real consumption growth may have slowed notably in the... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surge in US acreage doesn’t bode well for corn prices With sizeable US inventories and the likelihood of large US corn and soybean plantings this year, we remain of the view that prices of grains and soybeans are likely to fall over the course of the... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in business intentions unconvincing The Bank of Canada's first-quarter survey on business intentions suggests that the worst might be over for Canada’s struggling economy, but we don’t anticipate any significant improvement this year... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore is not a global bellwether As a small, very open economy that releases GDP data much earlier than most other countries, Singapore is often billed as a bellwether for the global economy. In reality, Singapore’s GDP is far too... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities hit by strong US data and Saudi comments Markets began the second quarter on Friday on a sour note, with sentiment undermined both by a weak Tankan survey in Japan and, rather perversely, by another robust Employment Report and a buoyant ISM... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs, published today, suggest that, having slowed sharply in February, global manufacturing growth recovered in March. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery getting back on track? The increase in quarterly GDP growth from 0.4% in Q3 to an around-trend rate of 0.6% in Q4 suggests that the recovery has regained some momentum. There are factors that should stop growth from... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Central European yield falls to outstrip other European sub-regions With property yields in Western Europe at historic lows, investors are looking to core CE markets for higher income returns. This will lead to heightened competition for assets in these markets and... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
