China Data Response PMIs (Mar.) Today's better-than-expected PMI readings are consistent with our long-held view that policy easing will result in a cyclical upturn in China’s economy this year. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner? We can’t rule it out completely, but recent suggestions that Australia is the second most likely country in the world to suffer a debt crisis and recession in the next one to three years seem... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The pronounced drop in the headline index of today’s Tankan survey underlines that the recent strengthening of the yen has damaged business confidence and suggests that the Bank of Japan will announce... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much does the weather matter for energy commodities? One of the strongest El-Niño’s on record has been largely to blame for the unusually mild winter weather recently. Indeed, last year was the warmest on record and February this year was the hottest... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation? Growing support for populist politicians and political parties in a number of countries has fuelled fears that the global economy is set for an era of greater protectionism. But while world trade is... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New Argentine GDP data a step in the right direction 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Brexit fears still weighing on sterling, despite recent gains 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Rhodium price to benefit from tighter fundamentals The price of rhodium is set to recover over the next couple of years as (i) cuts to capital expenditure in South Africa start to take their toll on production and (ii) usage of the metal in... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m increase in January GDP, which was double the 0.3% m/m consensus estimate, was a very welcome surprise, particularly as the gain was so broad-based. We are not convinced the stronger tone... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean won leads the way Asian currencies continued their recovery in March, helped in part by fading fears of a sudden devaluation in the renminbi. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Mar.) March’s Colliers/REC survey signalled that the survey’s respondents have become more cautious since December. And while we are in broad agreement about the direction of rental value growth, we think... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery? Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate hikes, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC’s press conference this afternoon reinforced our view that concerns about loose fiscal policy will prompt a move towards tighter monetary conditions. This might happen as soon as the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.) South Africa’s surprisingly narrow February trade deficit is a rare piece of positive news about the country’s economy. Elsewhere, inflation eased in Kenya and Zambia. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the record current account deficit? Today’s data showing that the UK’s current account deficit hit a record high will reinforce fears that the EU referendum could trigger a balance of payments crisis. If funding inflows dried up, the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
