Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The slump in industrial output in February suggests that manufacturing activity will contract this quarter and implies downside risks to our forecast of a 0.2% q/q rebound in GDP in Q1. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s central bank makes long-awaited devaluation The Egyptian central bank’s decision to devalue the pound this month ended months of growing speculation that a move in the currency was on the cards. In the near term, this will bring some pain. The... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rebound leads market rally in Emerging Europe Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their earlier losses this month. The Russian ruble has been the region’s star performer, posting the largest gains among all EM... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the decline in profits mean a recession is coming? The 11.5% decline in corporate profits last year, which included a 7.8% decline in the fourth quarter alone, doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is imminent. Admittedly, profits usually begin to... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Reassessment of US rate outlook should drag euro back down 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 96.2 in March, from 94.0, suggests that the rebound in stock markets more than offset the impact of higher gasoline prices in... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMDB exit leaves Dilma on the brink According to widespread reports, Brazil’s largest political party, the PMDB, will later today announce that it plans to leave government – leaving President Rousseff closer to impeachment, and paving... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) House prices in January increased by a solid 0.5% m/m at the national level. Rising demand and low housing inventory are combining to put upwards pressure on prices - a set of conditions we expect... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Fundamentals will eventually underpin copper price rise The rally in copper prices since mid-January has been flattered by a weaker dollar and improved investor sentiment. However, we think a more sustainable recovery in the price will happen later in the... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Shanghai Discord likely to weaken the euro again Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech later today will, of course, be keenly watched for hints on the outlook for US interest rates. However, there have already been signs that the markets are reassessing... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation buoys local markets The Egyptian central bank’s decision to (finally) devalue the pound this month has raised hopes of an improvement in the country’s balance of payments position and faster growth, resulting in a jump... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka leaves rates on hold, but further tightening likely soon Despite mounting concerns over rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening currency, the central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) opted to keep its key policy interest rates unchanged at its meeting... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE exports prove resilient The individual breakdown of China’s total rare earth element (REE) exports shows that exports of most REEs continued to grow strongly in the first two months of this year. 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC “action” won’t derail the economic recovery The relatively timid measures announced by the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) today underlined that it is set to tread cautiously when implementing macroprudential policy... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
