Commodities Update Palm oil prices to fall back later in the year With the negative effects of El Niño on palm oil production likely to continue in the coming months, we have raised our near-term price forecast. But as output returns to normal and competition from... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will oil prices continue to recover? The foundations of the recent recovery in oil prices look a little shaky and some temporary pull-backs may be inevitable. For now we are therefore leaving our end-2016 forecasts (for both Brent and... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Too far, too fast for Chinese steel prices Chinese steel prices have surged recently but we think they are unlikely to hold on to their recent gains, as the underlying fundamentals remain weak. Although we expect growth in steel usage to turn... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Has CEE exhausted its spare capacity? Central and Eastern Europe suffered an unusually deep downturn during the global financial crisis, which led to a large rise in underutilised capital and labour. As demand strengthened, firms could... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are ECB corporate bond purchases a game-changer? The prospect of ECB corporate bond purchases is already having a positive effect on firms’ financing costs. But we don’t think that this will be enough to generate a meaningful recovery in investment... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets bounce back strongly The last month has seen EM financial markets recover from their poor start to 2016. Our Synthetic EM Exchange Rate Index has rallied to its strongest level since November. Almost all EM currencies... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering a prolonged period of weak growth The storm created by low oil prices will finally make its presence felt in the Gulf this year and we expect this to be the start of an extended period of slow growth. A wave of devaluations is highly... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Fiscal policy to take lead over monetary policy in supporting growth The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today. With the government stepping up efforts to support growth, we expect rates to be left on hold throughout 2016. 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Central bank in the Philippines in no rush to adjust rates With the economy steadily gaining momentum but inflation very low, today’s decision by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) to keep its key policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as no surprise... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Stars align for another modest rate cut Developments over the past month have paved the way for the Reserve Bank of India to deliver another modest interest rate cut in its April meeting. For a start, the finance ministry pledged to... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal stimulus budget won’t boost economy The 2016 Federal budget delivered today provides only a modest fiscal stimulus response to the flagging economy. Despite the more dismal GDP growth outlook this year, policymakers weren’t comfortable... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Refugee crisis is another threat to Greek bailout Greece and its creditors have reached some compromises that might allow the first bailout review to be concluded next month and negotiations over debt relief to begin. But the growing financial and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the recovery in industrial commodity prices be sustained? 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that, having slowed sharply in February, manufacturing growth in advanced economies remained very weak in March. The flash manufacturing PMIs rose... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of March, to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% y/y over February as a whole, confirms that overall price pressures remain in check for now. However, the rise... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
