Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Investment activity showing tentative signs of improvement The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure should help sustain the recent tentative pick-up in investment activity. But slow movement on the reform front means that a spectacular rebound is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Much more to gold’s rally than changes in monetary policy The price of gold has been boosted further today by the apparent dovishness of the Fed. Indeed, the consensus view seems to be that the prospects for the precious metal can be distilled down to... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Post-FOMC rally in Treasuries is likely to be fleeting FOMC participants’ revisions to their projections for the federal funds rate have boosted Treasuries. But there are three key reasons why we think the rally will be more than reversed in due course. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound devaluation prompts aggressive rate hike The Central Bank of Egypt’s larger-than-expected 150bp in its overnight deposit rate, to 10.75%, was a pre-emptive move to limit the inflationary impact from the recent devaluation of the pound. We... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What options does Sweden’s Riksbank have left? The growing unease over the potential impact of negative interest rates suggests that Sweden’s Riksbank will think twice about cutting the repo rate further below zero. It can draw on other policy... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Boost to Treasuries from Fed “dovishness” unlikely to last 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation, rand weakness force painful hike Today’s interest rate hike in South Africa will be followed with further tightening later this year in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Households still facing big squeeze despite Budget giveaway While the measures announced at yesterday’s Budget amounted to a small net giveaway to consumers, the bigger picture is that a significant fiscal squeeze still lies ahead. And although retailers did... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal austerity keeps onus on MPC to support economy The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today – marking the 7th anniversary of rates being at this record low – was unsurprising given the softness of recent activity indicators and... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Recent improvement in EM sentiment backed by fundamentals The risk of a systemic EM financial crisis remains low. Our CERI suggests that financial vulnerabilities across the emerging world are much smaller now than at the time of previous crises and have... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal austerity keeps onus on MPC to support economy The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today – marking the 7th anniversary of rates being at this record low – was unsurprising given the softness of recent activity indicators and... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update High stocks remain a headwind for nickel prices With the stainless steel sector expected to remain in the doldrums, the prospects for nickel demand are poor. Falling production should still mean that the market deficit will deepen this year... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus German office rental growth is set to pick up strongly Office rental values in Berlin, Hamburg and Munich now stand, on average, 7% above their prior 2008 peaks, and at their highest levels in 15 years. Even so, the positive economic outlook, low... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) & Final CPI (Feb.) January’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that export growth slowed again at the start of 2016, suggesting that the previous small boost from the weaker euro has faded. We expect the region’s trade... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia cuts again, easing cycle nearing end A rebounding currency, subdued economic growth and inflation, and the Fed’s dovishness yesterday all fed into Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut its main policy rate for the third time in as many months... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
