Europe Economics Update Will the new TLTROs boost bank lending? The latest changes to its lending operations mean that the ECB will now pay commercial banks to lend to the wider economy. But we still suspect that they will be unwilling to take the associated risks... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Dovish Bank of Japan to announce more easing next month The Bank of Japan did not announce additional monetary easing at today’s meeting, but dropped some strong hints that it believes more stimulus will eventually be needed. We now expect policymakers to... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade fears overdone The latest trade figures have reignited fears about the health of emerging markets. But while EM trade growth has slowed in recent years, we see little reason for alarm. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 16) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in February OPEC production fell in February. However, temporary pipeline outages were the cause of most of the decrease in supply, rather than any concerted effort to cut production. Indeed, it is likely that... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Indian consumer price inflation dropped in February as food price pressures abated. However, the RBI still faces a difficult task in meeting its inflation targets for the next two years. 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How worried should we be about February’s drop in investment? Hitting a 58-month low, investment activity surprised on the downside in February. While that could be signalling an imminent turning point for capital values, such an outcome does not seem consistent... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production was probably just a blip. Survey evidence suggests that the sector remains too weak to prevent the region’s economic recovery from slowing this... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should UK retailers fear a Brexit? The possibility of a Brexit has raised a number of worries for British retailers, including the prospect of falling consumer demand and rising imported goods costs. But while the short-term impact of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation a step in the right direction The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt to devalue the pound and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime is a positive step and should help to improve the country’s balance of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation held steady in February, but we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A stronger start to 2016 China’s latest activity data are more upbeat than first meets the eye and, on balance, suggest that economic momentum improved slightly in early 2016. We expect clearer signs of a recovery over the... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) Today’s data on machinery orders suggest that capital spending will continue to expand this quarter. While a near-term slowdown is likely, we expect the recovery in capital expenditure to resume... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the end of the housing boom near? The housing boom has been a key support to the economy over the past few years, but its end is in sight. While media headlines focus on the continuing booms in Toronto and Vancouver, the fallout in... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
