Commodities Weekly A rising tide lifts all boats A wide range of commodities benefited from improving sentiment towards the sector in the past week, even those – notably iron ore – where the underlying fundamentals remain distinctly bearish... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will a strong dollar continue to weigh on the US stock market? 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The weaker than expected 2,300 decline in employment in February and further uptick in the unemployment rate to a three-year high of 7.3% from 7.2%, provides more evidence that the economy is... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European prime retail rents show no sign of peaking The outlook for European consumers is relatively poor. Nevertheless, we expect a handful of structural factors to keep prime European retail rents on an upwards trend, growing by 3% y/y. 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The return to growth in Mexican industrial production at the start of this year is encouraging, but the underlying trend is still weak. What’s more, the pick-up was due to an improvement in mining and... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal policy won’t provide support for the recovery The two main events this week – the Budget and MPC decision – will highlight the divergence between monetary and fiscal policy stances. With Bank Rate likely to be held at 0.5%, marking seven full... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Today’s industrial production data suggest that output has continued to contract at the start of this year. The continued struggles of industry cast a dark cloud over the Modi government’s efforts to... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) China’s credit data show some extreme swings in the past two months which are the result of seasonal factors. But the underlying picture is that credit growth continues to accelerate, consistent with... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Better times ahead for Asian currencies After a few years of heavy declines, Asian currencies have started to make up some lost ground against the US dollar. We think other forecasters are being too negative in expecting the region’s... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) With recent survey evidence suggesting the economic recovery has lost some pace at the start of the year, today’s trade figures suggest that growth was worryingly unbalanced too. 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Feb) Property investment activity in February was weak. This may partially reflect fears about Brexit, but it is also in line with the expected moderation in activity from the very high levels seen in 2015... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates, but the tightening cycle has further to run The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% is unlikely to mark the end of the tightening cycle and we expect further rate hikes over the coming months. 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe set to shine while Russia continues to struggle We expect the economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) to perform well over 2016-17. Consumer spending looks set to stay strong, while export sectors will... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium price to strengthen, despite high stocks Concerns about China’s demand have been weighing on the price of palladium in recent months. As such, we think the price will recover as investor fears of a hard landing in China are assuaged. However... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
