Japan Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Japan write off its JGB holdings? At first glance, a write-off of the Bank of Japan’s huge JGB holdings offers a simple solution to the country’s debt problem. But it is not clear that such a drastic step would actually help... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia? The recent interest rate cut in New Zealand and the dovish comments by the RBNZ now mean it is easy to imagine a scenario where interest rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia. That would... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Heightened uncertainty should ensure unanimous vote Recent developments are unlikely to have caused Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to fundamentally change their view since they voted unanimously to leave rates on hold in February. Indeed... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombia’s economy grew by a respectable 3.3% y/y in the final quarter of 2015, but we expect the economy to slow this year as the impact of lower oil prices continues to bite and economic policy... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in US natural gas prices likely to be a slow-burner High stocks due to the exceptionally mild winter will prevent US gas prices from recovering much this year, but strong demand growth should set the scene for higher prices further down the line. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Look to the Fed, not the ECB, to drive the euro a lot lower 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation will force the Fed to act soon We are often characterised as being “bullish” on the US economy, but our economic growth forecasts are hardly upbeat. Instead, where we really differ from the consensus is in believing that even... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch referendum on Ukraine another threat to the EU While a ‘no’ vote in the upcoming Dutch referendum on the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine might have few direct effects, such an outcome would illustrate the Dutch population’s... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly delivers, but it can’t work miracles While the ECB today delivered a package of measures which exceeded market expectations, there is no guarantee that it will revive the euro-zone’s flagging economic recovery and eliminate the threat of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK’s trade deficit is all the euro-zone’s fault For all the hopes of a rebalancing towards exports, the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has barely narrowed since the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that a chronic lack of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is ECB easing good or bad for gold? The fall and subsequent rebound in the dollar price of gold after today’s announcement of additional monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) should help to settle the debate over what... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q4) In Q4, Ireland’s economy recorded another rapid expansion, but we are not too concerned about the economy overheating. Growth is likely to slow this year and price pressures appear to be fairly weak... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Feb.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board suggest that the market for palm oil continued to tighten in February, as falling production precipitated a further drawdown of stocks. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in French industrial production supports the message from German data that the sector had a good start to the year. But German exports fell in January, suggesting that softer global... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
