Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to edge down but scope for loosening limited Inflation is likely to have edged down in February as food price pressures have shown signs of abating. The chances of there being perhaps one more rate cut in the near term have risen, but this is... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s surprisingly strong gain in German industrial production is unlikely to signal the start of a lasting recovery and hence should not discourage the ECB from further bold policy loosening on... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The sharp fall in consumer confidence last month shows that the recent market turmoil has taken its toll on sentiment and suggests that households may cut spending further this quarter. What’s more... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The contraction in China’s exports deepened last month but this weakness should soon reverse as seasonal distortions fade. Meanwhile, relatively strong commodity import volumes ought to help assuage... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Life in the slow lane for Asia’s Tiger economies With productivity slowing and working age populations set to fall sharply, economic growth in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea is likely to average little more than 2% over the coming years... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) The second estimate of Q4 GDP confirmed that Japan’s economy contracted last quarter. With the early indications for Q1 not looking promising, we retain our view that the Bank of Japan will announce... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What’s behind the rebound in oil prices? The rebound in the price of Brent crude to as high as $40 per barrel today is consistent with our end- 2016 and end-2017 forecasts of $45 and $60, respectively, so we would not want to argue with it... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage interest rates drop back to under 4% The turmoil in financial markets during February led to a flight to safe assets which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 1.78%, its lowest level since early 2013, and also led to a drop in... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity slowdown: cyclical or structural? The slump in growth in EM commodity producers partly reflects a deterioration in potential growth rates in these economies but is mainly the result of cyclical weakness caused by a collapse in their... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What are the risks of another snap sell-off in German Bunds? 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin finds favour with investors While supply is clearly tightening, the outlook for tin demand is still uncertain. As such, improved investor sentiment seems to explain much of the latest rally in the tin price, making it... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How successful has Hungary’s unorthodox monetary policy been? Hungary’s National Bank has radically reorganised its monetary policy framework over the past couple of years, in the process moving away from interest rate cuts and turning to increasingly unorthodox... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment would bear the immediate brunt of a Brexit While we think the UK will do well either inside or outside the EU in the long run , there is potential for a short-term hit to investment in particular. But we don’t think that this would derail the... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest rally in Brazilian equities another false dawn? Brazil’s economy is under the cosh, but the 30% rebound in the Bovespa since mid-January has made it one of the top performing equity markets in the emerging world. While we doubt that the stock... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress have signalled, as expected, that the immediate economic priority is to support growth including with a looser fiscal stance and more monetary... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
