Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) January’s euro-zone retail sales data provided some relief that the consumer sector did not lose as much steam as had been feared around the turn of the year. But the outlook for the sector is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide and Halifax House Prices (Feb.) Nationwide recorded a small rise in house prices during February, while the Halifax recorded a sizable dip. This suggests that the rush to transact ahead of the stamp duty surcharge has not yet had a... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agriculturals can’t shake that sinking feeling While a weaker US dollar was a supporting factor for energy, industrial and precious metals commodities last month, it couldn’t stop the S&P GSCI Agriculture index continuing its downhill slide. The... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) The modest rise in ‘whole economy’ PMIs in the Gulf last month probably reflects a boost to sentiment on the back of the recovery in oil prices from their January lows. The big picture, however, is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The much weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 8.8% y/y, adds to reasons to think that the central bank will continue to resist hiking interest rates. But the key point is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rising chance of a rate cut Although we suspect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will want to keep its powder dry for a little longer, there’s a real chance it will surprise the markets and cut interest rates by 0.25% at the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jan.) The unexpectedly large narrowing in the international trade deficit in January suggests that the resurgence in the Australian economy in the second half of last year may have continued at the start of... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped by the most in eleven months last week. However, this was mainly driven by a surge in imports which offset a fall in crude production and rise in refinery inputs. Meanwhile... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Does sterling have further to fall? The possibility of the UK leaving the EU appears to have had a substantial effect on the value of sterling against the US dollar. Indeed, we think cable would have stayed close to $1.50 had fears of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation is back... again Recent evidence of a slowdown in the euro-zone’s economic recovery has been accompanied by a drop in consumer price inflation back below zero in February. The fall was partly down to food and energy... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt devaluation: short-term pain, long-term gain? We think the latest moves by the Central Bank of Egypt suggest that a long-awaited devaluation of the pound may be just around the corner. This will inevitably involve some short-term pain, but over a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The slight 5.2% m/m fall in mortgage applications for home purchase in February is not a sign that housing demand is tailing off. With mortgage affordability set to remain favourable and more... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank won’t cut rates again until after Budget The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on 9th March. But we still anticipate that the ongoing economic slump, triggered by the collapse in commodity prices... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
