Europe Economics Weekly How long will deflation last this time? The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exporters to benefit from renewed yen-weakness We expect GDP growth among Japan’s major trading partners to remain weak this year by past standards, so Japan’s export volumes will remain under pressure. However, if our currency forecasts prove... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households help Australia outperform its peers Even though it has faced a very testing set of circumstances, Australia has continued to outperform most of its peers and hasn’t done too bad by its own standards either. A lot of the credit needs to... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pushes up inflation A spike in food prices due to Chinese New Year looks likely to have caused inflation to pick up further in February. Once seasonal volatility has faded, we expect inflation to rise further this year... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) While wage growth rebounded in January, it remains low by past standards. With the upcoming spring wage negotiations set to result in smaller pay hikes than last year, the labour market will not... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales in January were slightly weaker than expected and suggest that consumption growth may have softened at the start of the year. Nonetheless, there is little evidence that the turmoil in... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A turn in sentiment or a “false dawn”? The prices of industrial metals rose in February. In the first half of the month, the combination of lower US interest rate expectations and some weakness in the dollar appeared to be supporting... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s underperformance set to reverse soon The recent poor performance of silver is surprising given the resilience of the gold price and the recovery in industrial metals generally. One explanation is that reduced safe-haven demand has... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What should we make of the latest decline in TIPS yields? The real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) have fallen since the US stock market hit a trough on 11 th February. The likely explanation is that investors have become more... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Brighter data from US, but not elsewhere Financial markets have recovered some poise since mid-February. This may be due to some more encouraging economic data from the US, which has dispelled fears that it is on the verge of a recession... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Global uncertainty appears to take its toll on UK activity Global growth worries and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Brexit referendum seems to have finally dented UK activity. Indeed, all three Markit/CIPS surveys fell in January. The composite PMI now... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How alarming is the latest collapse in Brazil’s PMI? The collapse in Brazil’s Composite Manufacturing and Services PMI in February has grabbed plenty of headlines but it’s notable that it has not been repeated in other (more reliable) business surveys... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch The ECB can’t afford to disappoint again The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
