Japan Data Response Unemployment & Household Spending (Jan.) While the labour market continues to tighten, consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the new year. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall as sentiment remains fragile Stock markets in China slumped at the end of February, erasing nearly all of the gains they had made since the late-January low. Meanwhile, market interest rates have remained near record lows. The... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How worried should we be about capital outflows? All of the increase in capital outflows from China last year was the result of a reduction in China’s foreign liabilities, largely driven by firms paying down external debt. By contrast, purchases of... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s economy after the election As expected, the Irish election did not provide a clear victor. It is possible that uncertainty while the parties negotiate to form a coalition government could hurt the economy. But the Irish economy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should the rest of the world fear ‘Brexit’? The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has weak global demand contributed to the fall in US grain exports? Several years of bumper global harvests have seen a sustained downward trend in the prices of corn and wheat. At the same time, US exports of both crops have slumped in the current 2015/16 marketing... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will China become a major metals exporter? It is often easy to forget that China is not only the largest single consumer of metals but, in many cases, also the dominant producer. Of course, in recent years, strong growth in demand meant that... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nominal GDP growth set to slow again The surge in nominal GDP last year reflects temporary factors and should not be taken as a sign of success for Abenomics. In fact, nominal GDP growth is set to slow this year. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will only have added to mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, at this stage we do... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jan.) Chile’s economy remained relatively weak in January as the industrial sector continued to struggle. While we expect conditions to improve over the course of this year, today’s data underscore the... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut may signal capital outflow concerns abating The People’s Bank paused monetary loosening in recent weeks apparently on concerns that it would worsen capital outflows. The government stepped up fiscal support instead. Today’s cut to the required... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets mixed, Indonesia top performer After a rocky start to the year, Asian markets have settled down over the last month as investors have pushed back their expectations for the next rate hike in the US and oil prices stabilised. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weak note Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the end of last year and, as the fiscal squeeze begins to bite, we expect growth to weaken to just 1.5% this year. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation back into negative territory clearly intensifies the pressure on the ECB to announce a decisive increase in its policy support following its meeting next... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals picked up in January, as buyers rush to transact before the stamp duty surcharge comes into force. But once the April deadline passes, we expect the upward pressure on approvals... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
