UK Commercial Property Chart Pack A slow start to the year The key economic indicators released this month highlighted that job creation and retail sales have been solid. Despite nominal wage growth softening further, near-zero inflation continues to boost... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Have central banks run out of ammunition? There is undoubtedly less scope for policy easing than there was a few years ago, but the charge that central banks are now powerless is, in our view, exaggerated. For a start, policymakers still have... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How important are foreclosures for housing inventory? The return to more normal levels of foreclosure activity has removed one factor that was helping to support the inventory of existing homes for sale. But foreclosures are clearly not a sustainable way... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of employment gains will inevitably slow Our econometric model points to a more muted 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, with the growth rate of average hourly... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch When will the oil market rebalance? A potential agreement between some OPEC members and Russia to freeze oil production at January’s levels, along with fears about slowing economic growth in China and the US, have intensified debate... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Will 2016 be a better year for world trade? With the exception of 2009, the value of world trade fell more sharply in dollar terms last year than in any other year during the past two decades. However, this was largely due to the slump in... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 4.9% m/m increase in durable goods orders in January was flattered by a strong rebound in the notoriously volatile aircraft component, but details of the report bode well for equipment investment... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers step in to defend currencies Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia this month responded to the sharp falls in their currencies by hiking interest rates and stepping up intervention in foreign exchange markets. These moves appear to... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The effect of Government housing interventions in 2016 Schemes designed to unblock stalled sites or provide discounted homes for first-time buyers are unlikely to transform the UK’s housing supply. Meanwhile, BTL tax reform and the Help to Buy ISA are... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much of an inflationary threat is the labour market? The labour market has been rapidly tightening, but there are reasons to think that this won’t feed into a surge in wage growth soon. Indeed, we think there is at least some slack left in the labour... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q4) Housing starts picked up in the final quarter of 2015. And while demand for newbuilds appears healthy, lingering labour shortages are likely to prevent housing starts from taking off this year. 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Recent volatility in Portuguese bond yields a worrying sign for property Given the historic correlation between property yields in Lisbon and Portuguese government bond yields, the recent spike in bond yields seems worrying. Although a correction in property yields does... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) While gold imports by China plummeted in January, India’s buying remained strong. Looking forward, local price premiums suggest that the weakness in imports of gold is likely to have persisted through... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will poor harvests in India drive wheat prices higher? Lower Indian wheat harvests this marketing year and next are likely to lead to output falling short of consumption in the world’s second-largest producer. But abundant stocks in the country mean that... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
