Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economic recovery hits its stride The surge in Peruvian GDP growth in the final quarter of 2015 was partly due to the temporary boost from the opening of a new copper mine. Nonetheless, the wider economic recovery appears to be going... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another month of solid Chinese metals imports Imports of many industrial metals had surged in December, so somewhat slower growth in January came as no surprise. However, the bigger picture is that China’s imports of metal have remained strong... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish start to 2016 for Chinese agricultural import demand The detailed Chinese import data for January, released earlier today, indicate that import demand for agricultural commodities started the new year as it ended the last: weak. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Bumper start to the year for China’s PGM imports China’s imports of palladium and platinum surged in January. The seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the figures to some extent. Nonetheless, strong car... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central & South Eastern Europe remains an EM bright spot The latest data from Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) serve as a timely reminder that, despite widespread pessimism, some parts of the emerging world are faring well. Flash Q4 GDP estimates... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Did the US stock market send a false signal again? The US stock market has made significant gains since hitting a trough on the 11th February. We expect it to make more headway as the news from China improves, and do not think that its prior slide... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI supported other evidence that the region’s recovery has slowed in Q1 and added to pressure on the ECB to provide further decisive policy support... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policymakers unfazed by rupee slide The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar so far in 2016 to its weakest level since the 2013 "taper tantrum". But unlike three years ago, there is little reason for policymakers to panic. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low in February and suggests that business sentiment has suffered from the sharp falls in the equity market and the stronger yen. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices may finally be finding a floor Oil prices have ebbed and flowed in the past week on hopes that at least some OPEC members will be able to agree a deal with Russia to freeze output. Admittedly, the recent talks have left many... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU deal soon should pave way for a Brexit referendum in June The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further pick-up in inflation likely this year Despite the persistence of low oil prices we still think that inflation in the major advanced economies will rise this year. That said, it is only likely to increase substantially above 2% in the US... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing still not in recession The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
