Japan Economics Update Outlook for consumer spending remains weak We don’t expect the recent slump in the stock market to create a major drag on consumer spending. But with wage growth unlikely to accelerate, we think that private consumption will be weaker this... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was the start of the year really that bad? With equity prices still more than 10% below last year’s highs, employment having contracted for two months in a row and leading economic indices slumping, a visitor from Mars would be forgiven for... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Yield floor in sight The turbulence in commodity and equity markets since the turn of the year has intensified concerns about the outlook for commercial property in the UK. And the longer the market dislocations persist... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks returned to the familiar pattern of strong growth last week after taking a brief respite the previous week. On a more positive note for prices, inputs to refineries rose and oil... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will the outcome of the EU Summit give sterling a lasting boost? 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Slowing economic growth weighing on rental growth The fourth quarter brought clearer signs of an economic slowdown in non-euro-zone Western Europe. And this economic weakness may help to explain the limited extent of rental value growth in Q4 across... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The usual raft of activity data for January showed that, following an awful December, conditions in the Russian economy improved at the start of this year. Encouragingly, there are early signs that... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No relief for ags as investors become more bearish Amid all the recent market turmoil, agricultural commodities haven’t performed too badly, with the S&P GSCI Agriculture index having only fallen by just over 1% since the start of the year. While the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economic measures too little too late The move by Venezuelan policymakers to devalue the official exchange rates and raise fuel prices will help to ease the pressure on the public finances, but the measures fall chronically short of what... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cautiously positive on lead demand Lead usage has contracted for two consecutive years. However, some of the downturn can be attributed to destocking, as well as a decline in China’s e-bike production. As these trends run their course... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower interest rates to save Osborne’s bacon again While most developments since November’s Autumn Statement bode poorly for the public finances, lower interest rates should provide an offset. However, the Chancellor would be unwise to spend this... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are euro-zone peripheral government bonds overvalued? Although euro-zone peripheral government bonds still appear overvalued even after their poor performance over the past month, we wouldn’t be surprised if their valuations remained quite stretched... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut one more time Bank Indonesia today cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%. We believe that one more cut is likely in this cycle. Today’s statement hints that, as long as the recent market calm... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will oil prices affect Treasuries and Bunds? We expect oil prices to recover this year and next. This would exert greater upward pressure on inflation in the US than in the euro-zone and encourage the Fed to raise interest rates further while... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
