Precious Metals Update Can gold rally even if Treasury yields rebound? Over short horizons the gold price is often driven by the same factors that determine US Treasury yields. This means that the price of the precious metal now looks increasingly vulnerable to a... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Strongest year for capital values since 2006 Office rental values recorded their strongest quarterly gain since 2011 in Q4. Yet at the all-property level, yield compression, rather than rental growth, proved to be the main driver of capital... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: anatomy of a budget meltdown We estimate that only one-sixth of the jump in Brazil’s budget deficit over the past two years has been due to a drop in tax receipts. Instead, the bulk (five-sixths) has been due to a rise in... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What impact will lower oil prices have on the housing market? Low oil prices will act as a headwind to the housing markets of oil producing states and dent the demand for high-end homes from foreign buyers. But set against that, the money households save on gas... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, as a sharp 0.6% m/m jump in food prices offset the gasoline-related 0.8% m/m decline in transportation prices. Added to some... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle just starting The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) has delivered a surprise by hiking both its policy interest rates by 50bp. Against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, building price pressures and currency... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook MPC unlikely to wait as long as markets think We think that recent fears about a global slowdown, and hence the reaction in financial markets, have been overdone. In fact, we expect global growth to accelerate this year and the prices of most... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Banking sector fears overdone One of the main areas of concern in markets in recent weeks has been the banking sector, both in the UK and overseas. However, we do not think that this pessimism about the UK’s banking sector is... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi’s criteria for further easing already met Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Chancellor will welcome today’s better news on the public finances, ahead of the Budget next month, while January’s retail sales figures suggest that the consumer recovery remains in full swing. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth holding up well despite export slowdown The recent weakness of Asian exports has stoked fears about the region’s growth prospects. However, regional GDP growth remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2015. Strong domestic demand is likely... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Worst should be over for EM exports The value of EM exports dropped by more than a trillion dollars last year but the pace of contraction eased in Q4. We expect further improvements in 2016 as global demand strengthens. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the sales tax hike be postponed yet again? Following the renewed contraction in output last quarter, we are lowering our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1.0%. If domestic demand doesn’t pick up soon, the government may decide to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
