UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Today’s BBA data recorded a sharp rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase. This points to a mortgage market that is heating up, as landlords and second home owners rush to transact before the... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) While small business confidence picked up in February, firms project a deterioration in March allowing for seasonal factors. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growing divergences among EMs Aggregate EM growth has continued to disappoint in recent months with signs of a renewed (albeit small) deceleration in the latest data. Perhaps more important though is the widening divergence in... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Revised) Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP confirmed that the economy ended last year strongly. However, it will face headwinds in 2016. While we think export conditions will improve... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s criteria for further rate cuts haven’t been met…yet The turmoil in financial markets, the stagnation in employment growth and the recent rises in bank lending rates to businesses are unlikely to have spooked the Reserve Bank of Australia by enough to... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weakening economy suggests Norges Bank will act in March The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / Existing Home Sales (Dec./Jan.) The surprise rise in existing home sales in January provides further evidence that housing demand is being supported by very low mortgage interest rates and a strong jobs market. But with inventory... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic price pressures building The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near-zero levels... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of confidence to an eight-month low of 92.2 in February, from 97.8 suggests that the financial market turmoil earlier in the month is beginning to weigh... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EMs? Over the past week we have published a four-part series analysing the key issues that will shape the outlook for emerging markets. In this Update , we summarise the main messages. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) The final estimate of Q4 Mexican GDP confirmed that the economy grew by 2.5% y/y, but revisions to the back series show that the slowdown at the end of last year was sharper than previously thought... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium consumption surge isn’t all it seems We think that recent reports suggesting China’s aluminium consumption surged last year and that the world market recorded a deficit don’t accurately reflect the fundamentals of the sector. The reality... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How have euro-zone consumers spent their oil savings? Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to fall as China plans further sales of stocks With the prospect of further sales of China’s vast state cotton stocks continuing to depress Chinese import demand, and US production rising, we think the price of cotton will drop further this year. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
