Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4) Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Banks and building societies reduced their net loans to the commercial property sector in January. However, with banks and building societies’ exposure to commercial property holding fairly constant... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY16/17 budget: finance ministry stays on consolidation path At first glance, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley appears to have pulled off a difficult balancing act in today’s nbudget announcement. The tighter deficit targets have been left unchanged, while the... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will South Africa suffer Brazil’s fate? The main reason why South Africa has not followed Brazil into a deep recession is that the shock to its terms of trade has been less extreme. Our core view is that South Africa faces an extended... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How much scope is there for European office rents to rise? In recent years, across Europe, yield compression has been by far the largest driver of capital value growth. Yet property yields are fast approaching their limit. That means we now need to see a pick... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The rebound in industrial production in January is unlikely to assuage concerns about the health of Japan’s economy as firms are predicting a renewed slump in February. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4 15) Although Sweden’s economic boom continued in Q4 2015, strong domestic demand has not yet fuelled inflationary pressures. As such, we continue to think that the Riksbank will need to ease policy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stable but subdued Our GDP Trackers suggest that aggregate EM growth was stable at the end of last year as a dip in Emerging Asia was offset by signs of recovery in Emerging Europe . The improvement in Emerging Europe... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption growth rebounds The slowdown in real consumption growth to a more modest 2.0% annualised in the final quarter of last year was a disappointment, particularly as households were benefitting from a further decline in... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stubbornly high inflation adding to the pain The rebound in headline inflation in January back to the mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range illustrates that the markedly weaker Canadian dollar isn’t all good news. Strong goods... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Markets view glass as half-full Aside from a rebound in the cost of sugar prompted by lower production forecasts, the key driver of most commodity prices this past week has been an improvement in sentiment in global financial... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Would a Brexit be a White Thursday for the UK stock market? 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s fall is nothing to fear Brexit unsurprisingly dominated the news again last week, especially its continued downward impact on sterling. As the referendum nears, we expect to see further falls in the pound. However, this... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned about Poland’s shift to populism? There is a risk that medium-term rental growth in Poland will be lower due to the populous policies pursued by its new government. However, in the short-term, we think property investors will be more... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Why is the euro-zone economy slowing? Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Flash CPI (Feb.) German CPI data revealed that inflation fell back below zero in February and, alongside weak readings for French and Spanish inflation, suggested that the eurozone has re-entered deflation. 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
