Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold starting to benefit from demand for inflation hedges The ongoing tussle between gold bulls and bears often boils down to a view on the outlook for US interest rates. If the Fed resumes its tightening soon as global risks fade, supporting the dollar, the... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More evidence that the tide is turning in EM equity markets Emerging market (EM) equities have performed well in recent days, buoyed by rising commodity prices and an increase in purchases by foreign investors. We remain upbeat and still expect the MSCI... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Feb.) Commercial construction activity in February fell for a second consecutive month. However, we think that recent weakness reflects some degree of normalisation, after a particularly strong fourth... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What would a ratings downgrade mean for South Africa? South Africa’s disappointing 2016 budget published last month has reinforced concerns about the prospect of a ratings downgrade to junk status. This would clearly be damaging to the government’s... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance ministry’s revenue assumptions look too optimistic Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s budget on Monday was well received, with targets for further reductions in the deficit left unchanged and projected spending in key areas ramped up. But the plans are... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment and strength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Short-term costs of a Brexit wouldn’t derail recovery Although we think that the UK will do well in the long run whether inside or outside of the EU, there is clearly potential for a disruptive short-term impact from the uncertainty that would be seen... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The news that the economy grew by 0.6% q/q late last year will reassure the RBA that it has been right to resist calls to cut interest rates further. That said, it might not be long before the RBA... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 15) Q4’s rise in Swiss GDP came as a relief given the uncertain global environment ands trength of the franc. But with persistent deflation posing a serious threat to the economy, we still see the SNB... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities bounce back Commodity prices generally enjoyed a month in the black in February, with three of the four sub-indices posting gains. A weaker US dollar was a supporting factor, although it couldn’t prevent the... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMI surveys fall across EMs The fall in February’s manufacturing PMI surveys across emerging markets serves as a reminder that, while the worst for the industrial sectors in most EMs is probably behind us, conditions remain... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The final manufacturing PMIs for February, published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing activity slowed in 19 of the 24 economies for which data are released. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iranian elections a positive step, but reasons to be cautious Recent elections in Iran have provided a positive endorsement of President Rouhani’s reformist policies ahead of next year’s presidential vote and should ease fears that Tehran will renege on its... 1st March 2016 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) Despite the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a five-month high of 49.5 in February, from 48.2, the factory sector continues to be battered by the strong dollar and weak global demand. The... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will London be the catalyst for the next property correction? Overpricing is a more salient concern for London’s property markets than at the national level. However, there are cyclical and structural factors that currently support more aggressive pricing in the... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
