UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) With GDP still estimated to have risen by a quarterly 0.5% in Q4 of last year, the UK recovery is still looking solid, but unspectacular. A number of clouds loom on the horizon, but we don’t think... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is another bubble inflating in Japan’s housing market? There has been some recent talk of froth returning to Japan’s housing market but prices, other than for condominiums, are not rising at a rapid rate. With debt levels also stable, there are no signs... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) Although the fourth quarter Australia private capital expenditure data were stronger than expected, the disappointing estimates of future capital expenditure will be concerning for the Reserve Bank of... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What can, or should, the G20 do? Calls for co-ordinated policy easing ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting will almost certainly cometo nothing. However, officials should at least seek to reassure investors that the world is not on... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices triggers fiscal responses The past month has seen governments in several countries in Latin America announce measures to repair some of the fiscal damage caused by lower commodity prices. The most impressive package came from... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks hit another high last week, but gasoline stocks fell, both partly reflecting reduced refinery activity. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Which EM equity markets are set to shine? Time will tell if the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities was a turning point, but we remain cautiously optimistic that they will outperform those in the developed world in 2016/17. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big is the Brexit premium? We estimate that sterling would rebound from $1.39 to $1.50 against the dollar if the UK voted today to remain a member of the EU. But if a similar move occurs in response to a vote to stay in the... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Ukraine’s political crisis re-escalates Political tensions have once again come to the fore in Ukraine, putting the country’s IMF programme at risk. Although the government survived a no confidence vote, the ruling coalition has fallen... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 2.9% y/y, from 2.5% y/y over January as a whole, was due to a rise in food inflation, which is typically volatile and should... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices of industrial commodities may finally be bottoming out Looking past the day-to-day volatility, the prices of many industrial commodities – including oil and base metals – appear to be finding a floor. This is at least consistent with our relatively... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The rally in the price of iron ore appears premature The recent surge in the price of iron ore is not supported by fundamentals. Chinese steel production fell sharply in January, while efforts to boost iron ore supply are ongoing. As such, we expect... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2016 budget falls short of expectations South Africa’s 2016 budget was a damp squib and is likely to dent the government’s recent efforts to regain economic policymaking credibility. While the budget is now based on more realistic growth... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth to remain subdued in 2016 Today’s GDP data confirmed that growth in Hong Kong stayed weak at the end of 2015. Although the government has unveiled a budget that should support growth this year, we don’t think it will be enough... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb & Q1.) Following the strong official retail sales figures in January, February’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey proved very disappointing reading. But we remain upbeat about the near-term prospects for high... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
